Next’s (NXT) online business overtook its bricks-and-mortar operations in the first half, with related revenues climbing 12.6 per cent and exceeding £1bn. Trouble on the high street was undoubtedly a factor – the latest data from the British Retail Consortium showed footfall was down 1.3 per cent in the year to August – but finance director Amanda James said this was part of a long-term trend.
She said the greater range available in terms of both styles and size give the online operations an edge over physical stores. However, handling an ever-widening range of items has strained the group’s warehouse operations, leading to a 10 per cent increase in average unit costs since 2016. Management has reconfigured some of its warehouse facilities in response and is undergoing a five-year, £310m investment programme to improve capacity.
Profits from Next’s physical retail operations fell by close to a quarter on a 5.5 per cent drop in sales. Here, much of the work has gone into controlling costs while the group rides out the current high-street slowdown. Management has been working to renegotiate rents up for renewal, securing average reductions of 28 per cent. However, where rent reductions haven’t yet been achieved, rates and service costs are still “stubbornly fixed”, contributing to operational leverage that has led to significant margin erosion as sales fall.
Management was relatively sanguine on the potential impact of Brexit, noting that “the warm start to September has done much more to hinder sales than the political temperature”, adding that political events tend to have a material impact on consumer behaviour only when they directly affect income or non-discretionary expenditure.
Bloomberg consensus forecasts are for full-year adjusted EPS of 457p, up from 433p in 2019.
NEXT (NXT) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 5,906p | MARKET VALUE: | £7.87bn | |
TOUCH: | 5,902-5,908p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 6,218p | LOW: 3,970p |
DIVIDEND YIELD: | 2.8% | PE RATIO: | 13 | |
NET ASSET VALUE: | 164p | NET DEBT: | £1.19bn* |
Half-year to 27 Jul | Turnover (£bn) | Pre-tax profit (£m) | Earnings per share (p) | Dividend per share (p) |
2018** | 1.96 | 315 | 188 | 55.0 |
2019 | 2.01 | 327 | 204 | 57.5 |
% change | +3 | +4 | +9 | +5 |
Ex-div: | 05 Dec | |||
Payment: | 02 Jan | |||
*Does not include lease liabilities of £1.33bn, **Restated |