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Numis looks to private markets

Robust transactional activity in private markets is a small ray of hope on the stockbroker's otherwise bleak vista
December 5, 2019

At the end of September, Numis’s (NUM) client roster had seven more entries than it did a year ago. On average, the market capitalisation of those names was also 7 per cent larger. But while the investment bank is keen to talk about these metrics, neither is especially important to investors when stockbroking and transactional activities are as weak as they are.

IC TIP: Hold at 248p

Shareholders were given fair warning. As forecast in a pre-close trading update two months ago, second-half revenues of £55.9m were in line with those booked at the half year, as an uncertain domestic political backdrop spread to corporate boardrooms and market participants. Fees were concentrated “amongst a far smaller group of deals” compared with recent years, as M&A work declined and institutional investors failed to return sales calls batting for UK equities.

Offsetting these declines, and echoing previous observations, Numis said that transactional activity in private markets continues to gain momentum. Indeed, a $460m (£350m) private fund raising for Swedish fintech business Klarna was the group’s largest single transaction of the year, although just £9m of its top line came from unlisted work.

Although management reports a strong pipeline in this field, and describes the start to the current financial year as “encouraging”, there is currently little balance between the income statement and balance sheet. After paying out £12.7m in dividends, and maintaining its share purchase programme, the cash pile has declined by a quarter.

NUMIS (NUM)    
ORD PRICE:248pMARKET VALUE:£260m
TOUCH:240-249p12-MONTH HIGH:288pLOW: 211p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.8%PE RATIO:28
NET ASSET VALUE:132pNET CASH:£84.2m
Year to 30 SepTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201598.021.519.511.5
201611232.523.512.0
201713038.327.412.0
201813631.625.112.0
201911212.48.812.0
% change-18-61-65-
Ex-div:12 Dec   
Payment:7 Feb