Ten years ago, Google was in its infancy and Apple on its deathbed.. Ten years from now, the biggest tech stock in the world might be Chinese. But what will be the 'killer app' technology? Here are some likely contenders from Walter Price, investment manager of the RCM Technology Trust:
"In today's world of short memories and short–term focus, it is easy to overlook the continued rapid fundamental changes that have taken place over the last decade in the technology sector," says Mr Price. "When looking forward to the next 10 years, while there are a number of key areas where we have already seen growth, such as the LED TV (light-emitting diode), there are also some brand new developments in this sector which are still yet to be widely adopted. These are the areas to watch for future investment opportunities as we believe they will be the products which potentially will have the most rapid and increased growth over the next 10 years."
■ Internet TV / video: The function of the PC will transform, primarily, into a consumption device for information and entertainment. Recommendation engines will grow significantly in importance and media content will be freely available over the internet.
■ LED technology: LEDs can offer 90 per cent energy savings and a significantly longer lifespan in comparison to regular light bulbs. Over the next few years, LED technology will cross quality and cost thresholds for widespread replacement of indoor and outdoor lighting, starting a considerable investment cycle.
■ Cloud computing: This is the biggest trend in enterprise computing since the late 1980s and it is enabling businesses to move to a more efficient IT model. Cloud Computing offers large cost savings and a great amount of scalability and flexibility. As a result, IT costs will substantially decrease.
■ Smart grid/energy infrastructure: The electrical grid is often referenced as the world’s most complicated machine, yet it is hopelessly outdated, and it can no longer adequately balance future supply and demand without huge investments. Neither higher penetration of renewable nor large scale electric care deployment will be feasible without smart grid investments.
■ Democratisation of computing: Access to computing resources, for a long time the domain of the desktop computer and later the laptop, is fast being complemented by many others, such as smartphones, tablets, TVs and navigational devices. Interaction is moving away from keyboards to a variety of touch, voice and gesture–aided access.
■ Solar: Prices are falling every year so that within the foreseeable future solar power systems will come much closer to delivering electricity at grid parity in even challenging environments.
■ Display technology: A transition to OLED (organic light emitting diode) display in the coming decade has started, which will provide thin, low–power, better–picture, bendable and low–cost displays.
■ Rechargeable batteries: Significant growth in storage batteries will be required for mobile devices, hybrid cars and power plant electricity storage. This is in addition to the progress currently underway to increase energy density of storage systems.
■ Evolution of the user interface: Apple invented the point-and-click interface in the early 1980s. But smartphones and gaming consoles are setting the pace now. Gesture recognition, eye tracking, speech-to-speech translation could transform the way we interact with hardware.
■ Global connectivity: Ericsson's vision of a tenfold increase in wirelessly connected devices over the next 10 years, we believe, will continue to be one of the biggest drivers of technology this decade, with the next billion first-time users coming via smartphones, not the PC world.
