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Consumer misery hammers Home Retail

Shares in the Argos and Homebase owner have halved since we said sell, and the group's profits are still heading in the wrong direction
October 19, 2011

Predictably, this grim performance from Home Retail – which operates Argos and Homebase – reflects the equally grim consumer backdrop.

IC TIP: Sell at 107p

Argos, which generates about two-thirds of group revenue, is struggling most. Like-for-like sales at the high-street chain slumped 9.1 per cent as hard-pressed consumers cut back on discretionary spending. Consumer electronics, notably televisions and video game systems, have been especially hard hit – that market declined 20 per cent in the period. Argos' gross margin dropped 75 basis points, too. Management is, however, spending £22m rolling Argos out into China through a 49 per cent owned joint venture with Haier Electronics – an unexpected decision after being forced to close its six stores in India in 2009. DIY chain Homebase isn’t exactly booming, either. With big-ticket categories under pressure, like-for-like sales there fell 0.6 per cent and the gross margin dropped 25 basis points.

Seymour Pierce has cut its full-year pre-tax profit forecast by £10m to £125m, with its EPS estimate cut by 0.9p to 10.9p. The broker is assuming that the full-year dividend will be halved, too.

HOME RETAIL (HOME)

ORD PRICE:107pMARKET VALUE:£870m
TOUCH:106-107p12-MONTH HIGH:237pLOW: 100p
DIVIDEND YIELD:13.7%PE RATIO:7
NET ASSET VALUE:322p*NET CASH:£201m**

Half-year to 27 AugTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20102.72103.08.84.7
20112.5729.42.64.7
% change-6-71-70

Ex-div: 9 Nov

Payment: 18 Jan

*Includes intangible assets of £1.68bn, or 206p a share

**Excludes £2.95bn in off-balance sheet operating leases