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Is this a real bull market?

FEATURE: Dominic Picarda has studied the history of bear markets to see how investors can avoid being mauled by bear market rallies – and perhaps even profit from them
May 21, 2009

The last scene of every horror film is always pretty much the same. The ghoul lies motionless on the ground, apparently dead. With his back turned to his slain adversary, the hero consoles his distraught leading lady, whispering gently to her that "it's all over". Inevitably, though, the ghoul suddenly resurrects itself for one last bloody rampage, before being finally despatched for good - or at least until the sequel.

This sequence ought to be as familiar to stock market investors as it is to movie buffs. After each hideous sell-off during the bear market that began 18 months ago, optimists have declared that the worst is finally behind us. The market has shot up, luring more and more private investors back in. But then the index runs out of steam and begins to reverse. Within a short space of time, it has given up all its recent gains – and more besides.

To make sure you're still in one piece by the time the bear market's final credits roll, it pays to understand a bit more about the behaviour of these equity ghouls. So, we've looked back at the history of bear markets in the UK and elsewhere over many years to find out what you need to know in order to survive and perhaps even prosper when one of these brief relief rallies occurs.