UK inflation is rising. Next Friday's official numbers are likely to show that producer output price inflation has gone above 3 per cent for the first time since February, while input price inflation is running at 7 per cent, its highest for 13 months.
In fact, these rises are not so alarming. They reflect the fact that falls in oil prices last winter are now dropping out of the annual inflation rate. If we look at the level of prices, rather than the rate of change, output prices are slightly below what they were in the summer of 2008, while input prices are some 8 per cent below June 2008's peak.
What will concern the Bank of England more will be the money stock numbers released on Monday. A key measure here is the growth rate of M4 excluding non-bank financial institutions. These edged up to 2.9 per cent last month. However, the Bank believes that growth of around 5-8 per cent is usually consistent with normal economic growth and inflation. While growth remains below this rate, the Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates. Indeed, next week's figures could add to the case for extending quantitative easing, as they are likely to show another repayment of consumer credit, and still-flattish bank lending to non-financial companies.
These same figures could, though, show signs of a recovery in mortgage approvals. At around 58,000, these could be twice the level they reached in November 2008 - although they would still be only half their peak level.
This evidence of a recovery in the housing market could be corroborated by Lloyds Banking's report, which could show that house prices rose by around 5 per cent during 2009 - rather better than economists had expected. This, however, is due in large part to a lack of supply, and perhaps to a bias in the index, so it is unclear whether it represents the start of a lasting uptrend. Indeed, the figures are likely to show that the ratio of house prices to average earnings, at 4.7, is still some 16.9 per cent above its 1984-2009 average, suggesting that prices are expensive by one metric.
On Thursday, we'll see how the Bank of England's monetary policy committee responds to all this. Economists expect it to leave policy unchanged.
On the international scene, we should see further evidence that the world's manufacturers are recovering. Purchasing managers surveys should show that activity has increased for a third month running in the eurozone and the UK, and a fifth successive month in the US. And other figures should show that industrial production in Germany is up by over 9 per cent from April's trough (although it will still be some 8 per cent down on a year ago).
More attention, though, will be upon Friday's US labour market report. Last month, this was surprisingly good, showing unemployment dropping from 10.2 to 10 per cent, and non-farm payrolls falling by just 11,000. Much of this, however, was due to an increased number of temporary workers disguising falls in employment across the economy, so economists have low hopes of another strong report next week.
