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Anywhere but Europe

With European economies struggling and political uncertainties rising, we've found eight great growth stocks with significant non-European exposure
May 9, 2012

The economic news from western Europe has been terrible recently. The Dutch government has collapsed, and election results in France and Greece suggest an uncertain future for economic policy. The UK is one of 12 EU countries in recession. Eurozone unemployment has hit a record high and recent PMI data has made anguishing reading. Spain is on the brink of another bank bail-out. You could be forgiven for wanting to give the entire region a wide berth.

And maybe you should. The rest of the world does not seem to be in quite such a mess. In fact, the US has recently put out very good PMI numbers, and while fears rumble on about potential upsets in emerging markets, particularly China, growth nevertheless continues.

With this in mind, we're searching for companies that are listed in London but do most of their business outside Europe and display attractive growth characteristics. Of course, we're also on the hunt for shares in companies that have solid track records to minimise the chances of disappointment.

Our screen has not focused on any valuation criteria, although some details on valuation are included in our table. Most of the shares that have passed our tests have PEG ratios (price-earnings-to-growth) of more than one, which suggests that they are quite pricey.

For our screen, we've taken all companies in the FTSE All Share with market values of over £200m and generating over two thirds of revenue from outside Europe, including the UK, and screened them for the following:

■ Earnings growth: five-year average underlying EPS growth of more than 5 per cent, underlying EPS growth of over 5 per cent last year; and forecast EPS growth of more than 5 per cent in the coming 12 months;

■ Dividends: five year average compound dividend growth of at least 5 per cent, a rise in the dividend per share over the last twelve months and a payout ratio of less than 75 per cent;

■ Quality: return on equity of over 12.5 per cent;

■ Balance sheet: net debt needs to be less than three times cash profits and interest cover over five times. As it happens, half of the companies coming through the screen have net cash.

The results

Chemring

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
CHG£757m392p                                    7.13 15%

Forecast PEGDYNet Debt/EBITDA 5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                   0.881 3.8%                                    1.66 23%36%

The cheapest of the stocks to make it through the screen is Chemring, a company that has been making frequent appearances in our screen results of late. While a recent trading update restored some faith in prospects for the defence company, cuts in defence budgets and the expected scaling down of major conflicts represent big challenges to the company. There are signs of value, but we feel wary of Chemring.

Last IC View: Hold, 390p, 24 Jan 2012

Spirax-Sarco

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
SPX£1.8bn2,315p                                    17.5 7%

Forecast PEGDYNet Cash5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                    1.54 2.1%£12m16%13%

Spirax-Sarco operates in a cyclical industry, but it is a company that has a reputation for consistently delivering. Demand for its energy-efficient steam-powered equipment is being buoyed by high energy prices as well as regulation. Spirax boasts very strong cash generation and frequently pays special dividends. There are also some hopes of margin improvements this year.

Last IC View: Hold, 2,141p, 9 Mar 2012

Elementis

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
ELM£936m207p                                    14.4 10%

Forecast PEGDYNet Cash5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                    1.84 2.1%£17m25%13%

Drivers of growth for chemicals group Elementis have been the recovery in the US economy and the boom in shale gas drilling, which have more than offset ongoing weakness in Europe. The shares have had a strong run on the back of the solid trading performance, prompting us to call time on a long-standing buy tip, moving the shares to a hold at 207p. However, prospects continue to look good and a growing cash pile brings with it the possibility that management will decide to return some capital to shareholders.

Last IC View: Hold, 207p, 30 Apr 2012

Experian

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
EXPN£10.0bn991p                                    20.0 30%

Forecast PEGDYNet Debt/EBITDA5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                      1.6 1.7%                                    1.26 17%40%

Investment in emerging markets has been reaping rewards for credit-checking firm Experian for some time. It is benefiting from the development of financial services industries in its new markets as well as strong GDP growth. The group's US operation has also started generating good growth again for the group. As well as its organic expansion, a number of acquisitions help boost prospects.

Last IC View: Fairly priced, 831p, 10 Nov 2011

Burberry

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
BRBY£6.5bn1,483p                                    22.0 27%

Forecast PEGDYNet Cash5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                    1.19 1.4%£298m19%21%

The growth of the Burberry fashion brand has become synonymous with the economic rise of emerging markets and the emergence of flush consumers from these regions. What's more, the group's focus on opening stores in areas of high tourist inflow in developed markets means it is less reliant than most retailers on domestic consumer spending. However, a trading update in mid-April reported a slowdown in Asian sales, and the shares are as expensive as the handbags.

Last IC View: Fairly priced, 1,352p, 15 Nov 2011

Intertek

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
ITRK£4.1bn2,557p                                    20.7 29%

Forecast PEGDYNet Debt/EBITDA5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                    1.26 1.3%                                      1.7 16%18%

There are a number of things going for Intertek beyond its diverse geographic spread. The group's testing services, which cover a wide range of quality-control areas from toys to commodities, are fairly defensive. The group also benefits from strong structural growth based on increasing safety-standard regulation around the globe. Organic sales increased by over 8 per cent last year thanks to the strength of commodity markets. The group also has a habit of augmenting growth with acquisitions.

Last IC View: Hold, 2,398p, 5 Mar 2012

Dialight

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
DIA£325m1,022p                                    26.1 27%

Forecast PEGDYNet Cash5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
-1.0%£14m21%14%

Dialight is at the forefront of a switch from traditional lighting methods to LED lighting, which is more efficient and durable. The company has established itself in several niche markets and the growth has been phenomenal. There is still much more to play for and a trading update in April suggested the company is well placed to deliver on high expectations this year. The business is also benefiting from falling input prices and there are plans to sell Dialight’s components operation which made a small loss last year.

Last IC View: Hold, 842p, 27 Feb 2012

Tullow Oil

TIDMMarket CapPriceForecast PEForecast EPS Growth
TLW£14.0bn1,547p                                    30.9 9%

Forecast PEGDYNet Debt/EBITDA 5-yr EPS CAGR5-yr Divi CAGR
                                    2.44 0.8%                                    1.64 14%17%

A combination of a high oil price and exploration successes has put wind in the sails of Tullow Oil's share price. Its most recent find has been in Kenya and there is more exploration going on. Production issues at its Jubilee field have done little to dent enthusiasm for the shares, which trade at a hefty premium to net asset value (1100p based on broker Numis’s forecasts) and compared with ratings of rivals.

Last IC View: Hold, 1,478p, 14 Mar 2012