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GSK looks flat

TIP UPDATE: A generally tough economic environment, combined with austerity cuts to healthcare budgets means it is time to take profits on our successful buy tip
July 25, 2012

It is increasingly clear that the eurozone crisis is starting to impact all corners of the UK's economy, if GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) half-year results are any guide. Pharmaceuticals should be resilient, but management warned that the impact of savage austerity cuts in Europe, along with price falls in the US, will keep sales flat this year. Chief executive Andrew Witty said the ability of GSK to succeed in such an environment would depend on gaining access to growth markets.

IC TIP: Hold at 1,418p

The so-called 'white pill' markets in developed economies are under considerable pressure. The company's response is to restructure its manufacturing operations, which is forecast to generate £500m of savings by 2015 at an additional cost of £200m. That comes on top of the £2.5bn of annual savings GSK had already found over the past four years. It also places more pressure on the consumer healthcare business to make up the shortfall in pharmaceutical sales, which were down by 1 per cent to £10.5bn in the half. So far, the segment continues to grow, with revenues up by an underlying 5 per cent to £2.59bn, helped by demand for Sensodyne toothpaste.

Broker Shore Capital forecasts flat full-year pre-tax profits of £7.61bn and EPS of 106p subject to review post results.

GLAXOSMITHKLINE (GSK)

ORD PRICE:1,418pMARKET VALUE:£70.8bn
TOUCH:1,418-1.419p12-MONTH HIGH:1,499pLOW: 1,155p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5.08%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:141p*NET DEBT:123%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£bn)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201113.34.0551.832.0
201213.13.4352.134.0
% change-2-15+1+6

Ex-div: 8 Aug

Payment: 4 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £11.4bn, or 228p a share