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Next week's economics 3-7 September

Next week's economics 3-7 September
August 28, 2012
Next week's economics 3-7 September

Purchasing managers' surveys are expected to confirm flash estimates which showed that the economy contracted in August, albeit not quite as much as in June and July. This would be consistent with overall GDP in the region falling in the third quarter.

Official figures on Wednesday will remind us that the problem is not just an industrial one. Retail sales volumes in the region are expected to have fallen year on year in July by over 1 per cent, implying that they haven't recovered at all since the 2008-09 recession. Sales in Portugal and Spain are very weak, but demand in the north isn't strong, either; sales in Germany and the Netherlands are down from a year ago.

We might get better news from German industry, where figures should show a bounce in both new orders and output in July after falls in June. Even such recoveries, however, would leave both well down on a year ago, and would mean that output has been flatlining all year.

In the UK, we can expect mixed signals. The good news should come in official numbers on Friday which are likely to show that manufacturing output and industrial production leapt in July, reversing June's Jubilee-induced drop. This would put us on course for decent quarterly growth in the third quarter - a prospect that could be corroborated by the NIESR's estimate on Friday, which should show that activity in July and August was well above the second-quarter's level.

However, Monday's purchasing managers' survey is likely to remind us that this bounce is largely a statistical quirk. It's expected to report that manufacturing output fell in August, thanks in part to the sickly eurozone hitting exports and confidence. And Tuesday's report from the British Retail Consortium is likely to show only modest sales growth in the year to August, reminding us that the prospects for the consumer are still poor.

There is, though, a benefit of weak growth - it is grinding down inflation. Friday's figures could show that manufacturing output price inflation (excluding duties) has fallen to its lowest rate since September 2009, with the price level having dropped since March. Input price inflation, however, might pick up a little, thanks to higher food prices.

In the US, meanwhile, we'll see signs that the economy is struggling. The ISM is likely to say that manufacturing activity was more or less flat in August, while Friday's numbers should show that the economy created a net 150,000 jobs in the month - not enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

We'll see on Thursday how the ECB and Bank of England respond to this. We probably won't get a change in policy from either - although the MPC will consider more QE - but the ECB's press conference might clarify its attitude towards buying bonds.