■ The NIESR estimates that GDP in July and August was 0.9 per cent higher than in the second quarter.
■ The CBI says that manufacturers' order books and output expectations have both risen.
■ Official figures show that manufacturing output rose 2.3 per cent in July, to a 12 month high.
■ Purchasing managers say that service sector activity in August showed the strongest growth since March.
Against all this stands a big ugly fact - there is little sign of the euro area recovering, and history suggests a weak euro area is bad for the UK. Since the mid-90s, annual growth in UK industrial production has moved almost in lock-step with the euro area; the correlation coefficient has been 0.9 since January 1997. The only time the UK greatly out-performed the euro area was in 2009 when our output slumped slightly less than theirs.
This poses the question: can the UK recover without the euro area? There are two slivers of hope.
One is that our exports to the rest of the world are doing nicely. In the last three months, exports to non-EU countries were 12.5 per cent up on a year ago, with exports to China up a hefty 27.6 per cent.
Welcome as this is, it comes from a low base. Goods exports to the non-EU represent less than 10 per cent of GDP, and exports to China are only 0.7 per cent of GDP. Even allowing for strong multiplier effects, this is too narrow a foundation for a strong recovery.
The second possibility is that a combination of nugatory interest rates and a desire to replace old equipment might finally cause an upturn in capital spending. This might just be already starting. Official figures show that output of capital goods in the three months to July was 4.1 per cent up on a year ago, even though other areas of production fell.
Sadly, though, there are as many reasons for pessimism here as optimism. Uncertainty about the fate of the euro area (and US!) will hold back spending plans, as will the fact that so many firms are working below capacity. And Bank of England data show that companies increased their cash holdings markedly in July, suggesting they still want to hoard cash rather than invest.
What's more, the obstacles to a strong recovery aren't all overseas. There are home-grown ones too – and not just the obvious ones such as fiscal austerity, banks' reluctance to lend and the squeeze on households' real incomes holding back consumer spending. Official figures and the latest CBI survey show that firms have increased their inventories in recent months. This could hold back production as firms work off this excess.
Now, the story here isn't all bleak. We should at least get a big rise in GDP in third quarter, partly thanks to a bounce-back from Q2’s Jubilee-induced drop. But the data we have now suggest Sir Mervyn is right about something else: "it will be a slow recovery."
