Official figures on Tuesday are likely to show that industrial production in July and August was around 1.6 per cent higher than in the second quarter (Q2). The same day, the NIESR could say that its estimate of real GDP rose by almost 1 per cent in Q3.
These numbers, though, flatter to deceive. They largely reflect the fact that economic activity has returned to normal after being depressed by the Jubilee bank holidays in June. This 'normal' is rather weak. Both the NIESR and industrial production numbers are likely to show pretty much no growth since autumn 2011.
British Retail Consortium numbers should be consistent with this. Although these might not be quite as grim as last month, when they showed that like-for-like retail sales fell 0.4 per cent in the year to August, they should show only modest growth. This will remind us that the fundamental causes of household spending - real incomes, expectations for the future and job security - are not conducive to a strong recovery.
We might, however, get some better news from the overseas trade data. Although these are very volatile, they could show that the trade deficit is on course to be smaller in Q3 than in Q2, implying that external trade is contributing to GDP growth. However, this will be a narrowing from a record level, and due in part to a drop in imports reflecting weak domestic demand. It is hardly evidence of the 'rebalancing' that the government had hoped would happen.
Meanwhile, overseas figures will remind us not to expect a big recovery in UK exports.
In the US, the beige book - the Fed's survey of regional economic conditions - is likely to report that economic activity is growing only very modestly. And a similar thing will be true for the eurozone. Friday's official data could show that industrial production in the region was flat in August, implying that there is likely to be only very modest growth (if any) between Q3 and Q2 - though Germany's numbers are likely to be better than those of southern Europe.
