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Next week's economics: 4-8 March

Next week's economics: 4-8 March
March 1, 2013
Next week's economics: 4-8 March

There might, however, be better news about German industry in Thursday's figures on new orders. Although these are volatile, they could show that orders have trended upwards since September. And output data the following day could show that production has at least stopped falling in the last three months.

In the US, meanwhile, the economy seems to be growing modestly. This should be the message of the Fed's beige book - a survey of regional economic conditions - and of Friday's employment data, which should show a rise in non-farm payrolls of around 150,000. However, those numbers will also show continued mass unemployment. On a wide measure - which includes the unemployed, those out of the labour market who would like a job and part-timers who'd like full-time work - 14.4 per cent of the labour force are jobless. That's over 22m people.

In the UK, we should also see signs of growth. Purchasing managers are expected to report a second successive monthly increase in service sector activity, and the British Retail Consortium is likely to say that total retail sales in February were around 2.5 per cent up on a year ago; last month's survey, however, showed a brighter picture of sales than did official figures.

Thursday will bring us the monetary policy committee's policy statement. The news that three members wanted more quantitative easing last month has increased the chances of further easing. However, there probably haven't been enough developments since then to justify the other six members changing their mind.

We'll also get a policy announcement and press conference from the ECB. It too is likely to leave policy unchanged, perhaps with less justification than the Bank of England has.