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Analysts trim APR Energy forecasts

RESULTS: A big contract win in Libya has boosted temporary power supplier APR's shares - but analysts at Investec have trimmed earnings forecasts
March 21, 2013

Shares in temporary power provider APR Energy (APR) have been exceptionally volatile of late, yet these full-year figures provided little in the way of surprises to spook or re-ignite market sentiment.

IC TIP: Sell at 800p

The group grew revenues and cash profits sharply but amortisation of intangible assets saw APR post another headline loss for the year. Looking ahead, APR provided a fairly optimistic outlook statement despite the gloomy market conditions facing the sector. A huge 250-megawatt (MW) contract win in Libya this month - the largest ever for the group - brings new contract wins to 281MW so far in 2013, in addition to 80MW of contract renewals. That compares with contract wins of 569MW and contract extensions of 724MW during 2012. But broker Peel Hunt reckons that, to hit full-year targets, APR needs 600MW of new contract wins. To that end, APR’s forward order backlog has grown to 14,651MW-months as of 15 March, up from 11,592MW-months at the year-end.

The unpredictable nature of the temporary power market means earnings flows and new contracts tend to be lumpy, so a strong start to the year doesn’t necessarily have much bearing for the remainder. Broker Investec Securities is likely to revise down its 2013 earnings estimate by about 10 per cent following these results - which translates into EPS of 49p (45.1p in 2012).

APR ENERGY (APR)

ORD PRICE:800pMARKET VALUE:£626m
TOUCH:800-808p12-MONTH HIGH:1,041pLOW: 570p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.3%PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:1,396¢NET DEBT:16%

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
2010*nil-6.00-14.9nil
2011†165-33.0-73.010.0
2012266-4.85-19.110.0
% change+88*---

Ex-div: 1 May

Payment: 28 May

*12 months to 31 Oct

**Annualised

†14-month period

£1=$1.51