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Opinion

Next week's economics: 22-26 April

Next week's economics: 22-26 April
April 19, 2013
Next week's economics: 22-26 April

In truth, though, this is not very significant. Worrying about a tenth of a percentage point in data that are subject to big revision is just silly. The bigger picture is that GDP has been more of less flat since late 2011.

However, things might be improving. Unless Tuesday's CBI's survey of manufacturers shows a surprise setback from last month, it will show that companies expect output to grow nicely in the next few months. And the CBI's survey of retailers the next day is expected to show that sales picked up in the first half of April, after a poor March.

In this respect, the UK is doing better than the eurozone. Flash purchasing managers' surveys on Tuesday are likely to show that the region is still in recession; the best we can hope for is a moderation in the rate of decline of output. This should be confirmed by the National Bank of Belgium's indicator of business conditions, which could be close to its lowest since autumn 2009; this matters, as this indicator is well correlated with eurozone industrial production.

There might, however, be better news in Germany's Ifo survey, which could show that companies' expectations for future business are better than they were in the autumn.

It's in the US, however, where we will see the best signs of strength. Friday's first estimate of GDP could show that the economy expanded at a real annualised rate of over 3 per cent in the first quarter. One force behind this has been the strength of the housing market, which should be confirmed in Tuesday's data. These should show that new home sales rose in March, and are some 20 per cent up on a year ago.

However, many economists suspect that growth will slow in the second quarter. Their concerns might be corroborated by durable goods orders numbers on Wednesday, which could show little month-on-month growth.

Watch out also for UK figures on the public finances on Tuesday. These should show that public sector net borrowing was close to the OBR's forecast of £120.9bn in 2012-13. The current budget deficit - which excludes net investment and many accounting changes that have affected PSNB - should, though be higher than it was in 2011-12.