On Tuesday, the British Retail Consortium could report that retail sales fell in April. This would be partly due to Easter falling earlier this year and to poor weather in the first half of the month, but it will also remind us that falling real wages are depressing household spending.
Official figures on Thursday will show that the manufacturing sector is doing no better. If these numbers confirm the first-quarter GDP estimate, they will show that manufacturing output fell slightly in the quarter - albeit that it grew in the month of March.
One reason for this weakness is that net exports are contributing almost nothing to growth, and we'll see this in Friday's figures. These could show that the UK's trade deficit fell in March, but in the first quarter as a whole was only very slightly lower than in the fourth quarter, with export and import volumes both falling in the quarter. This is not wholly due to the recession in the eurozone; the figures could also show that exports to some non-EU countries such as the US are also falling.
We might, however, get some better news from the NIESR's estimate of GDP on Thursday. This could show that GDP rose by around 0.5 per cent in the three months to April. However, this would partly be due to a statistical quirk; GDP dipped in January, and this will flatter the three month-on-three month comparison. The numbers are also likely to show that GDP was only slightly higher in April than it was in the summer.
In the eurozone, meanwhile, purchasing managers are expected to confirm on Monday that output in the services sector is still falling, albeit slightly less so than in the last two months. Official figures will tell a similar story. Retail sales for the region on Monday are likely to post a fall of around 2 per cent year on year, with especially big falls in southern Europe.
We'll get official industrial production data for the larger economies in the week. These are likely to show small falls in output in the first quarter in France and Germany and a small rise in Italy, with the general picture being one of mild recession.
There might, though, be some better news in German factory orders on Tuesday. Although these could show a fall in March after a big rise in February, they might be slightly above the summer's low point, which could be a sign that the recession is almost bottoming out.
