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Opinion

Next week's economics: 13-17 May

Next week's economics: 13-17 May
May 10, 2013
Next week's economics: 13-17 May

There might, though, be better news about expected growth. Germany's ZEW survey on Tuesday could show that financial professionals are still optimistic about the country's prospects for recovery.

However, it's US figures that are most keenly awaited. Last month, these pretty unanimously showed that the economy slowed down. Was this just a blip, or a mild moderation, or something more worrying? Several figures next week will clarify this: retail sales on Monday; manufacturing production and the Empire State survey on Wednesday; and the Philadelphia Fed's survey on Thursday. If these fail to reverse the falls we saw last month, concerns will grow that the 'sequester' has hurt the economy more than expected. This could prompt the Fed to increase its QE programme.

In the UK, attention will focus on Wednesday's labour market numbers. These could confirm that unemployment is rising. This, though, might not be very concerning; recent figures suggest the rise is due to people joining the labour market rather than to employment falling. What's more worrying is that wage growth is so low; last month's numbers showed it to be just 1 per cent, the lowest since present records began in 2001, which implies a drop of 1.8 per cent in real terms. This squeeze on household incomes is hurting consumer spending and our prospects for a decent recovery.

We'll also see the Bank of England's latest assessment of the economy in Wednesday's release of the Inflation Report. This should show that the Bank is less worried about inflation, thanks to the drop in commodity prices, low wage growth and the rise in sterling - although none of these will prevent inflation rising in the very short term. The policy implications of this are, however, unclear, as Sir Mervyn King will step down as Bank governor next month.

Perhaps the most important number for investors, though, will be Wednesday's US capital flows numbers, as foreign buying of US equities has for years been a great predictor of equity returns. Last month, the figures showed net foreign selling. A repeat of this would be welcome, as it would suggest that the high confidence over the winter (which usually leads to falling prices in the following 12 months) is dissipating.