Economists expect Friday's US employment report to show that the economy created a net 175,000 non-farm jobs in May, which would take the unemployment rate down from 7.5 to 7.4 per cent. This would be consistent with an economy that's growing only moderately. Such a picture should be consistent with Monday's ISM survey, which could show that the manufacturing sector expanded very slightly.
One thing that's not contributing much to the US economy is the external sector. Tuesday's figures are expected to show that the trade deficit increased in April, which would mean there's been little trend in the deficit in recent months - consistent with net trade contributing almost nothing to growth.
Other figures next week will show why this is. Final purchasing managers' surveys are expected to confirm flash estimates which showed that the manufacturing sector in two of the US's main trading partners - China and the eurozone - contracted this month. In the eurozone, though, this would actually represent good news, because the rate of contraction seems to be moderating, which hints that the recession might be drawing to an end.
German figures on Friday might corroborate this. Although they could show a small fall in industrial production, this would follow a big rise last month, which would be consistent with output being above the fourth-quarter's levels. This is something of a recovery.
This moderation in the eurozone's recession should be good for the UK. And this should be evident in Monday's purchasing managers' survey, which could show that manufacturing activity expanded this month - the best reading since January. The equivalent survey of the services sector on Wednesday should show that it has continued to grow.
We could also get some slightly better news from the retail sector. The BRC is expected to report that retail sales growth improved in May after a bad April, when they fell 0.6 per cent year on year. However, this is likely to owe something to a bounce back after April's bad weather. The trend is for sales to be weak, due to falling real wages.
On Thursday, we'll get the latest policy announcements from the Bank of England and ECB. No change is expected from either, although there remains the possibility of some kind of easing later this year unless growth picks up faster than expected.
