In March, my colleague Matthew Allan and I decided that it might be an interesting exercise to publish the opposing buy and sell arguments for Sirius Minerals (SXX) within the Tips section of Investors Chronicle. It certainly generated a lively response.
The whole point of the ying/yang approach was to highlight the underlying binary nature of an investment in Sirius - a company that had generated a disproportionate amount of publicity for its York Potash project, especially given that it had yet to reach the approvals process at the time. Regardless of conflicting views on the marketability of polyhalite, and Sirius' ability to generate sufficient funding, the future of the project essentially hinged on whether management was able to secure development approvals from the North York Moors National Park Authority. As we now know, this is very much in the balance following negative environmental assessments and doubts over its regional economic value were published in separate consultancy appraisal reports commissioned by the National Park Authority.
If that wasn't bad enough, the subsequent collapse of a Belarus potash cartel, involving Russian producer Uralkali, threatens to undermine global fertiliser prices, with some analysts predicting a 25 per cent fall by the year-end. Bill Doyle, chief executive of Canada's PotashCorp, and BHP Billiton's (BLT) new head Andrew Mackenzie, said the development was no cause for alarm - but then they would, wouldn't they? Regardless, it's hardly a positive beat for the industry at large, and Sirius in particular.
