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No Olympic hangover for Wetherspoon

The downmarket pub chain has clocked strong growth rates over the summer, but cost inflation continues to weigh on margins
September 16, 2013

JD Wetherspoon (JDW) continues to generate good top-line growth, with like-for-like sales up 5.8 per cent over the year to July. The rate slowed to 3.1 per cent in the pub chain's final quarter, but this was expected because the European Championships boosted sales in 2012. The group has also managed 3.6 per cent like-for-like growth since the year-end, against a tough comparative period featuring the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Founder Tim Martin nonetheless batted down investor expectations, suggesting the underwhelming 2.5 per cent growth rate of the past fortnight as an "indicator for future sales growth".

IC TIP: Hold at 732p

Profits are another story. Wetherspoon is still prioritising growth over margins, which fell from 9 to 8.7 per cent at the underlying operating level. The reported fall in pre-tax profit reflects £19.8m of property losses (£13.5m in 2012), mostly reductions in the carrying value of underperforming pubs. The company has now made provisions of £47.6m against an estate that cost it £1.58bn to build. Strip these non-cash items out and pre-tax profit rose 6.3 per cent to £76.9m, buoyed by lower finance costs.

Broker Numis Securities expects pre-tax profits of £80.5m this financial year, giving EPS of 46.9p (up from £76.9m and 44.8p in 2013).

JD WETHERSPOON (JDW)

ORD PRICE:732pMARKET VALUE:£922m
TOUCH:728-734p12-MONTH HIGH:774pLOW: 457p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.6%PE RATIO:19
NET ASSET VALUE:171pNET DEBT:221%

Year to 28 JulTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20090.9645.018.2nil
20101.0060.529.312.0
20111.0761.435.412.0
2012*1.2058.935.612.0
20131.2857.138.312.0
% change+7-3+8-

Ex-div: 23 Oct

Payment: 28 Nov

*53-week period