The ONS is expected to say on Tuesday that consumer price inflation last month was 2.7 per cent, the same as in August. However, figures the following day are likely to show that average earnings have risen by barely 1 per cent, implying that real wages have dropped by around 1.5 per cent in the last 12 months.
However, Thursday's official data could show that this isn't much damaging the recovery. They could show that retail sales volumes have risen by around 2 per cent in the last 12 months, and were around 1.4 per cent higher in the third quarter than in the second.
A big reason why sales have been strong, despite lower real wages, will be evident in Wednesday's numbers. These should confirm that employment and hours worked are growing - although how far this is because lower real wages are pricing people into work is debateable. This means aggregate incomes are doing better than wages alone would suggest.
Although the CPI data are likely to be uninteresting, we should get some good news on inflation on Tuesday, because producer price data could show that manufacturing inflation (both input and output) fell again last month. This suggests there are no significant inflation pressures in the pipeline. With no sign of a wage-price spiral either, this could dampen inflationary worries a little.
In the US, meanwhile, figures should show that the economy was growing steadily before the partial government shutdown. Housing starts (if they are released) and industrial production could both post small increases in September, with the latter implying quarter-on-quarter growth of around 0.5 per cent.
We might get clues about the impact of the government shutdown from the New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys of manufacturing. In the last few months, both have perked up: but can this continue with the shutdown?
In the euro area, we could get some encouraging news. On Monday, Eurostat should report a rise in industrial production in August. However, this might only partially reverse July's drop, which would imply that output might not have grown at all in the third quarter. Concerns on this front, however, might be allayed by the ZEW survey the following day, which could show that optimism about the Germany economy is close to its highest since April 2010.
Perhaps the most important news for investors, however, will come in Wednesday's US capital flows figures. Foreign investors have been net sellers of US shares recently, suggesting that sentiment is depressed. If past relationships continue to hold, this predicts good returns on global shares in the next 12 months.
