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Make a space for Marshall

The motoring market is highly cyclical but this market newcomer ticks all the boxes for us.
January 28, 2016

Almost one year on from its IPO, vehicle retailing and leasing group Marshall Motor (MMH) is showing impressive progress. Still cash rich thanks to a £40m fundraising which accompanied the float, the group's been busy building scale through acquisitions and organic growth. With the car market still buoyant going into 2016, earnings forecasts moving upwards and an unchallenging valuation, we think investors should buckle up and enjoy the ride.

IC TIP: Buy at 180p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points
  • Buoyant car market
  • Positive pre-close trading update
  • Acquisition potential
  • Forecast upgrades
Bear points
  • Increase in central costs
  • Cyclical business

Since chief executive Daksh Gupta took the wheel in 2008, acquisitions have played a key part in the strategy to diversify Marshall by both geography and the car brands it sells. Indeed, over that period it has acquired or opened 18 new dealerships at the same time as closing 25 sub-scale or loss-making operations. This has expanded the group from being East Anglian-centric to cover 16 counties.

 

 

This strategy took another step forward late last year with the £24m acquisition of SG Smith. The deal represented a major expansion of the group's relationship with Audi UK, a strengthening of its Skoda representation and an extension of its partnership with Mercedes Benz in commercial vehicles. It also extended its geographic footprint in new markets across Kent, Surrey and London. The acquisition prompted broker Investec to ramp up EPS forecasts for 2016 by 14 per cent. There should be plenty more scope for earnings-enhancing deals, too, given the fragmented nature of the motor dealership market, Marshall's track record and a strong balance sheet backed by a £75m revolving credit facility.

But Marshall's growth has not all been bought. For a start, the company has a strong track record behind it. Between 2012 and 2014 it achieved a compound annual sales growth rate of 17 per cent and 68 per cent for pre-tax profit. Return on capital employed (ROCE) also improved from just 12 per cent in 2012 to 24 per cent in 2014.

A "significant increase" is expected from both the retail and leasing divisions in the recently completed financial year despite increased costs associated with the IPO. The leasing division, which accounted for 16 per cent of first half profit, is benefiting from the robust used-car market through de-fleeting - selling cars that have served their time as lease vehicles - which has resulted in "material" sales growth.

MARSHALL MOTOR (MMH)
ORD PRICE:180pMARKET VALUE:£139m
TOUCH:177-183p12-MONTH HIGH:195pLOW: 149p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.2%FORWARD PE RATIO:10
NET ASSET VALUE:163p NET DEBT:5%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)*Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
20130.9410.29.7nil
20141.0912.912.4nil
2015*1.2015.314.82.5
2016*1.4218.617.94.0
% change+19+22+21+60

Normal market size: 1,500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0

*Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures