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Begbies' recession-ready high yield

If the chances of a recession have grown post-referendum, this insolvency practitioner could be one of the beneficiaries.
July 7, 2016

It brings us no great joy to tip a share that should benefit in the event of a recession, the prospect of which has decidedly increased since the Brexit vote. Then again, stockpicking is an individual rather than a collective activity, so we hope the cynicism will be forgiven. But for investors looking for some form of hedge to the downside a downturn could bring, we flag Begbies Traynor (BEG), the UK's largest insolvency practitioner for smaller- and medium-sized businesses. And it's not only the possibility of a rise in administration work that underpins the investment case. The Aim-traded group has been diversifying into property consultancy and auctioneering work, which we think bolsters its earnings potential and in turn enhances the attraction of its shares' high yield.

IC TIP: Buy at 47p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Good dividend yield
  • Recent business diversification
  • Beneficiary of Brexit uncertainty
  • Cross-border reach
Bear points
  • Low interest rates
  • Current insolvency lows

While 2015 brought the fewest insolvencies in 26 years after five years of decline, there are several reasons why this trend could soon reverse. In April, Begbies identified 21,000 UK manufacturers that are heavily reliant on exports and, given their significant levels of financial distress, "could be tipped over the edge" by Brexit. Regardless of the benefits of a fall in the pound, the potential withdrawal from the European single market may be all that is needed for business confidence to plummet. This was echoed by the insolvency industry body R3, which said the vote could "create immediate problems" for some businesses and increase the need for insolvency advice. And although Begbies is primarily focused on the domestic market, its international alliance network means it should be in a position to benefit from any rise in complex cross-border insolvency matters.

 

 

A year ago, the potential catalyst for a rise in corporate insolvencies was the prospect of rising interest rates, which threatened to stretch banking covenants and lead to defaults. Given that UK rates may now be falling, the greater potential impact on small UK companies could be a mix of regulatory uncertainty, weakened consumer confidence and - as Standard & Poor's has warned - inflation. Begbies' network of 37 offices means it is well-equipped to handle bankruptcies, forced property sales or cash flow issues for companies all around the country.

In any event, Begbies has continued the push into other professional services which started with its £8.5m purchase of property surveyor Eddisons in 2014. Since last December, the group has added commercial property auctioneers Pugh Action Group and property valuation firm Taylors for a maximum of £4.7m and £1.9m, respectively. This has come with some expansion in debt, although interest payments were modest at around £1m last year, and both deals are expected to immediately boost earnings.

 

BEGBIES TRAYNOR (BEG)

ORD PRICE:47pMARKET VALUE:£49.9m
TOUCH:46-47p12-MONTH HIGH:50pLOW: 39p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:4.7%FORWARD PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:56p**NET DEBT:20%

Year to 30 AprTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)*Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
201351.16.75.32.2
201444.15.44.72.2
201545.43.62.92.2
2016*51.54.53.22.2
2017*53.26.14.42.2
% change+3+36+38-

Normal market size: 7,500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.50

**Includes intangible assets of £57.7m, or 54p a share

*Canaccord Genuity forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures