The constraint will be evident in Monday's public finances numbers. These could show that net borrowing in April to October was around £50bn - only £5bn shy of the OBR's forecast for the financial year as a whole, which suggests that borrowing is on course to far exceed expectations. From an economist's point of view, this is a little problem: negative real interest rates mean borrowing is sustainable. Politically, though, the desire to pretend that borrowing is 'under control' might limit the chancellor's room to increase spending.
The need for a loosening will appear in Friday's GDP figures. These should confirm initial estimates that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter. But they'll show that this growth was unbalanced, with almost all of it due to increased consumer spending; business investment is likely to have fallen. This is a problem, because higher import prices might well depress consumption growth from now on: Friday's CBI survey could show this is already happening. With investment unlikely to rebound sufficiently to offset this, there's a danger therefore that growth will slow. A fiscal easing could offset this.
It's not all gloom, however. Tuesday's CBI survey could show that manufacturing output is perking up, thanks to higher export orders. This isn't wholly due to sterling's fall. Overseas demand might also be improving. Wednesday's flash purchasing managers' surveys could show that manufacturing activity in the eurozone is growing at its fastest rate since early 2014, and that services growth is at its best since March. This cheery picture should be confirmed by Germany's Ifo survey and the National Bank of Belgium's business confidence indicator, both of which should show improvements.
It's not just in the eurozone that things are picking up. Wednesday's figures should show a rise in US durable goods orders, corroborating economists' hopes that the economy is growing at a rate of close to 3 per cent.
Stronger overseas demand matters for the public finances. Accounting identities tell us that net government borrowing must be the counterpart of some other sector's net saving. One of these other sectors has been the foreigner. Increased overseas demand is a sign that their net savings are declining. If this continues, it would help the UK's public finances.
