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OPG is getting the wind back in its sails

The group has been growing generation at its coal plants, while working to move into solar
June 8, 2017

OPG Power Ventures (OPG) develops and operates coal-fired power plants in India and is moving into solar energy. As such, prospects are supported by strong tailwinds from the country's growing economy. In addition to this, OPG's foray into solar generation means it is also likely to benefit from the Indian government's commitment to increase its use of renewables and reduce its carbon intensity - the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy consumed.

IC TIP: Buy at 42.5p
Tip style
Value
Risk rating
Low
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Near 40 per cent discount to forecast net asset value
  • Strong improvement in power generation
  • Diversifying into solar
  • Improved debt repayment profile
Bear points
  • Exposed to price of coal
  • Beset by one-off factors

However, the group has come up against a number of challenges recently, which has sent the share price down, despite the likelihood that the issues will prove temporary. In the group's January trading update it outlined a triumvirate of negative events. The first was the de-monetisation of India's high-denomination currency, which had a short-term effect on consumer spending and demand for energy. The second was the death of Ms Jayalalithaa Jayaram, chief minister of Tamil Nadu, where the group's Chennai plants are based. This led to depressed commercial activity for roughly a week. Finally, the state was hit by a cyclone. This caused only minor damage to OPG's plant, but regional transmission infrastructure was severely affected, which again had an effect on commercial activity. According to the group's most recent trading update, the Chennai plant's load factor - the ratio of energy output compared to the maximum possible output of a plant - was pushed down to 76 per cent for the year to March 2017, compared with expectations of 80 per cent.

Overall, though, there are encouraging signs emerging. The group's Gujarat plant, which is younger than Chennai, increased its average plant load factor to 63 per cent for the year, from 52 per cent in 2016. The company has also made important progress in addressing payment delays by the state electricity companies and expects to get most of the money due in 2018. This has involved an amendment of the share capital rights in the Gujarat subsidiary. At the end of September, about £20m had been collected from OPG customers by the state utility and still needed to be paid over.

Meanwhile, even accounting for the lower-than-expected productivity, total generation for the Chennai plant was 12 per cent higher than in 2016. The group is also pursuing two solar projects, one 62MW development in Karnataka, of which 40MW has secured debt financing, with sanction for the remaining 22MW expected in the next few weeks. The group has also secured a letter of intent for a 25-year power purchase agreement for a 124MW project in Jharkand. Once these are completed, solar will account for 21 per cent of the group's generation capacity.

OPG POWER VENTURES (OPG)

ORD PRICE:43pMARKET VALUE:£149m
TOUCH:42-43p12-MONTH HIGH:74pLOW: 40p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:6
NET ASSET VALUE:60pNET DEBT:128%

Year to 31 MarTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
20149917.94.1nil
201510021.64.9nil
201612828.65.3nil
2017**21427.66.00.8
2018**22534.57.01.0
% change+5+25+17+27

Normal market size: 5,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.74

**Shore Capital forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures