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AlphaScreens: GARP offers late cycle hints

The screen isn't flagging buys but it is giving investors late cycle clues.
August 27, 2019

Fears for global economic growth and the still expensive valuation of quality shares means that there aren't rich pickings for our growth at right price (GARP) screen. In truth, this isn't a screen for late on in the cycle, but its results are still worth monitoring as it drops hints for investors evaluating companies. 

  • Not one FTSE All Share company passes all our large-cap focused GARP tests. Several companies only miss one test but many of these are in some way connected to property (either housebuilders or Reits) which are better valued on price to net asset value (P/NAV), rather than the price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio used in our screen.
  • Non-property companies that only fail one test include NMC Health (NMC), recruiter Page Group (PAGE) – which will be vulnerable if the economy tips into recession - and entertainment group Cineworld (CINE).  
  • Scanning further down the All Share screen (large cap rules), the tests failed by companies like Imperial Brands (IMB), British American Tobacco (BATS), Games Workshop (GAW), JD Sports (JD.), Rio Tinto (RIO) and Legal & General (LGEN) offer clues to questions investors should be asking about their prospects.
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