Data out this morning show that German retail sales fell by 0.6 per cent in March, well below forecasts and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Over the last 12 months the level of sales did increase though, by a paltry 1.3 per cent. This mirrors consumer sentiment surveys which have dipped from a record high this month.
Today is a Labour Day holiday in China and Japan, tomorrow, the 1st May, in many more countries. Tuesday and Wednesday the US FOMC meets to set interest rates ahead of Friday’s US employment data for the month of April.
DAX 30
A large dragonfly doji at the 50 per cent retracement level is a little worrying, especially as we were at these sorts of levels a year ago.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 12430; stop above 12650. Target 12000.
POSITION TAKER: New short at 12400; stop well above 12650. First target 11800.
FTSE 100
Rallying for a fifth consecutive week and retracing almost ¾ of this year’s decline – yet merely back to levels we were at a year ago.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
A hanging man last week just under the half-way point of this year’s range and the MACD clearly in the red do not paint a bullish picture.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 2689; stop above 2725. Target 2580.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2673; stop above 2725. First target 2560.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
A second weekly drop is certainly not the end of the world, though momentum has turned bearish again in this multi-month rally.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out at a loss.
POSITION TAKER: Stopped out of my long position.
EURO/US DOLLAR
A small dip outside this year’s ridiculously narrow range comes as a surprise but all the euro’s done is retrace half of the gains late last year. We are currently looking for signs of forming an interim low in order to re-buy. Friday’s hammer candle is a good start.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Price action between 1310 and 1360 is looking increasingly like a complex topping pattern – a quadruple to, perhaps?
SHORT TERM TRADER: Looking to re-sell.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
