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Market Outlook: Commerzbank sold off in stages

EMC to Soc Gen
July 3, 2018

New head of investment banking at Societé Generale Séverin Cabannes said, ‘’we have a big interest the in the German set-up.  It’s a transformational moment for our German set-up…this acquisition will give us new strength in terms of trading capabilities we are taking over the trading and market making ability [in equities, markets and commodities] of Commerzbank’’ reports the Financial Times.

As from the 10th of this month the UK Office for National Statistics will release GDP data on a monthly basis.  Improved data collection means the information will be more timely; monthly and rolling three-monthly data will be published.  Retrospective data using this new method will also be released on the 10th.  Yesterday the ONS for the first time issued its estimates of the British shadow banking system.  At £2.2 trillion it’s larger than the UK economy and bigger than RBS was at its peak, The Telegraph reports.

DAX 30

Looking for direction around the Fibonacci 61 per cent retracement level, testing the downside yesterday to end with a hammer candle.  This suggests it’s time to take a little breather.  Note that the index is no longer oversold on the daily chart.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12550; stop well above 12465.  Target 11900.

FTSE 100

Still holding in a neat trend channel as we pull back from the record high.  Note that the MACD has been bearish throughout.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at a couple of levels; stop above well 7710.  Target 7400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 7799; stop well above 7800.  First target 7400, then 7100.

S&P 500

Re-drawing the lower edge of the bounce since April to see if we can make some sense of what’s going on.  Momentum is bearish, the index is not overbought, and the US dollar is stronger against a raft of other currencies – especially in Asia.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Bearish momentum seems to have exhausted itself but there are few decent chart patterns suggesting an interim low might be in place.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Scraps of bullish momentum emerging as we continue to just about hold above 1.1500.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1655; stop below 1.1500.  First target 1.1850.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

A really bad day for platinum yesterday as it manages to lose the best part of $60 in 24 hours.  Other precious metals have held up a bit better, but remain under pressure.  Remember, when push comes to shove cash is king and assets that can quickly and efficiently be transformed into it, are sold first.    

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Not sure where to re-sell.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.