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Market Outlook: Rightmove slips in July

UK house prices +1.4 per cent
July 16, 2018

UK house price data for the month to July from Rightmove show that nationwide prices slipped by 0.1 per cent since June, annualised growth of 1.4 per cent, and London’s slump deepening with a loss of 0.5 per cent in the period.  Hardest hit were properties with less than three bedrooms which were down by £18,000 in July.  This backs up earlier data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors where surveyors have seen a decrease in house sales for 16 consecutive months.

Last year shareholders pocketed £94 billion in dividends from companies listed in Britain, up 74.5 per cent since 2009.  Over the same period, Asia-based companies have seen their dividends increase by 162 per cent in local currency terms, 148 per cent in North America, 90.7 in emerging markets and just 47 per cent in Europe.

 

DAX 30

Momentum might turn bearish this week as we work on the right shoulder of a potential head & shoulders top.  The right one usually completes more quickly than the left, which here took between 4 and 6 months to develop – depending on where one starts and stops.  The right is currently into its fourth month.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small short at 12450; stop above 12650.  Target 12000, maybe 11800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Doji after weekly doji has seen the MACD drift inexorably lower. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at a couple of levels; stop above well 7710.  Target 7400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 7799; stop well above 7800.  First target 7400, then 7100.

S&P 500

The weekly MACD very inconclusive as we dither at the 76.4 per cent retracement resistance level.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 2787; stop above 2880.  Target 2590.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

MP for Whitney Robert Courts resigned his role as ministerial aide yesterday taking Theresa May’s ministerial losses to eight – since Chequers.  Cable continues its lengthy attempt at forming an interim base and the commodity channel index has turned positive.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long position at 1.3230; stop below 1.3070.  Target 1.3400, maybe 1.3550.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New long at 1.3235; stop below 1.3000.  Target 1.4000.

EURO/US DOLLAR

No longer oversold and trying to put in an interim base against the 50 per cent retracement level.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1655; stop below 1.1600.  First target 1.1850.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

A weekly close just below the 50 per cent retracement level has increased bearish momentum fractionally.  It is also the lowest weekly close in a year, which may encourage a few stale longs to cut and run.    

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New short at 1242; stop above 1275.  Target 1140.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.