CNBC reports that, according to data from the US Treasury Department, between March and May Russian holdings of US government paper fell by 84 per cent. Previously a sizeable investor, with $96.1 billion in stock, now they have just $14.9 billion. Many are musing as to whether this is related to President Trump’s sanctions. What is clear is that their selling coincides with the rise in 10-year bond yields which peaked at just over 3 per cent for the first time since 2011.
Seventeen wildfires are currently blazing in the state of California alone, tackled by 12,000 fire fighters; there are another 80 or so fires in other states. Four residents and two firemen have died because of the fires, seven are missing. The authorities have ordered tens of thousands to evacuate the most at risk regions.
DAX 30
The market grind on, holding the same very wide range that has dominated since February 2017, yet once again weekly momentum is bearish.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Bullish momentum has slumped since early June and is threatening to turn bearish this week. The series of nasty doji candles continues in a market where this technical analyst is rapidly losing the will to live.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Small short at 7799; stop well above 7800. First target 7400, then 7100.
S&P 500
A small shooting star weekly candle under trend line support since November 2016 which has acted as resistance since March. FANGS to the fore again as Apple reports this week following disappointments from Facebook and Twitter last week.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Tiny short at 2787; stop above 2880. Target 2600.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2805; stop above 2900. Target 2555.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Holding above trend line support following the previous spike low under 50 per cent retracement support. As if Britain didn’t have enough to contend with, and autumn deadlines loom, the Bank of England, no doubt egged on by City pundits (where futures contracts are pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a rate rise this week) is considering a 25 basis point rise in bank Rate to 0.75 per cent. The same MPC that cut it to 0.25 per cent post-referendum.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.3140; stop below 1.3000. Target 1.4000.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Momentum less bearish as we continue to move sideways in a sort of symmetrical triangle formation.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.1655; stop below 1.1600. First target 1.1850.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
The steady decline since early April makes a big change from the many weeks prior to that when we meandered aimlessly between 1300 and 1360. Now oversold on the RSI and around a watershed level so we’ll proceed more carefully and watch to see where we close at month-end.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1242; stop above 1250. Target 1140.
