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Market Outlook: Fat cats at it again

Pay growth 5 times their workers’
August 15, 2018

Today the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development published research on the pay of FTSE 100 CEOs.  Over the last 12 months it’s risen by 11 per cent, while that for full-time workers has increased by 2 per cent - and less than inflation, where July data is out this morning.  The median annual take-home pay for the top echelon is today £3.9 million; the mean pay is £5.7 million as a few seriously fat cats skew the data.

The pace at which buy-to-let mortgages are falling out of favour increased in June, with just 5400 of this type of lending agreed; this represents a 19.4 per cent fall from this time last year and is one of many drops since late last year.  This was caused by changes to tax relief on interest and stricter Bank of England guidelines on affordability.  RICS believes that because mainly small buy-to-let landlords are quitting, rents are likely to rise by 15 per cent by 2023.

DAX 30

Clearly trying to hold around the 12400 area – and above Fibonacci 61 per cent retracement support – but the MACD is acting as a drag.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 12635; stop above 12930.  Target 12200.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Oscillators and other technical indicators useless at the moment as, though we are back under the trend channel, we’re well within the range since May.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7610; stop above 7800.  First target 7500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 7799; stop well above 7800.  First target 7400, then 7100.

S&P 500

The MACD still just bearish despite yesterday’s tiny bounce.  Note that yesterday Turkey’s Official Gazette announced higher tariffs on goods imported from the US including vehicles, alcohol and tobacco.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2795; stop above 2880.  Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Short at 2805; stop above 2900.  Target 2555.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Cable dipping its toe a millimetre deeper into the water and still stupidly oversold.  Mind you, bearing up better than a lot of other currencies – and not just emerging market ones.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Another oversold currency which is testing 61 per cent Fibonacci retracement support at 1.1320.  Deputy PM Salvini, whose Legua party campaigned on increases in infrastructure spending, is blaming EU austerity on the collapse of the Genoa road bridge.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

A little fresh selling yesterday has kept momentum bearish.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1194; stop well above 1220.  Target 1160.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1242; stop above 1235.  Target 1140.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.