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Market Outlook: Nex hands CFTC $50 million

For rigging interest rate swaps
September 19, 2018

For over 5 years, starting in 2007, interdealer broker ICAP, headed up by City honcho Michael Spencer, colluded with its banking clients to manipulate key rates set daily in this $300 billion market.  The firm was sold to broking rival Tullett Prebon (at one time headed up by larger-than-life fund manager Terry Smith) in 2016, and eventually became part of Intercontinental Exchange (which owns Nex).  The Financial Times reports that among banks paying penalties for influencing Isdafix rates are Barclays, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and RBS.

A long-running dispute about how much retailers must pay credit card companies for the use of their terminals has finally been settled.  The last tranche of a total $6.2 billion fine was paid by Mastercard and Visa plus banks JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America.

DAX 30

Yesterday’s decent bounce from support at 12000 may turn momentum bullish at today’s close.  Treading carefully.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12240.  First target 11600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 11940; stop above 12400.  Target 11000.

FTSE 100

Support around 7200 has been stronger than expected and made a bullish engulfing candle yesterday.  However, momentum is still bearish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7280; stop well above 7400.  First target 7100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at an average above 7300; stop above 7500.  Target 6925.

S&P 500

Another index rallying despite China retaliating with ‘just’ another $60 billion worth of US goods subject to tariffs.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Bullish momentum increasing as slowly as sterling rallies.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2925; stop below 1.2950.  Target 1.3275.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.3110; stop below 1.2950.  Target 1.3600, maybe more.

EURO/US DOLLAR

As EU leaders meet in Salzburg today and tomorrow, chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said he is ‘’ready to improve this proposal [on the Irish border]’’.  His ‘moment of truth’ is the 18th October when the next Brexit summit takes place.  No wonder the euro is moving as slowly as cable. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.1595; stop below 1.1600.  Target 1.1785.

GOLD

Very frustrating and a lesson in how a leopard can change its spots: a very powerful bear market since April fizzles out into sideways stagnation.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1195; stop above 1220.  First target 1160.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1194; stop above 1215.  First target 1160.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.