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Market Outlook: US politics as divided as ever

Democrats regain lower House
November 7, 2018

US Democratic politicians and supporters are celebrating because they have, after an 8-year gap, regained the majority in the House of Representatives. President Trump is Tweeting gleefully because, in the states where he campaigned aggressively, the Republicans gained an extra 3 Senate seats. Welcome back to Congressional gridlock, might be the way to sum it up.

Data compiled by Dealogic show that in the year-to-date US firms have invested $87 billion in UK firms, up $57 billion since this time last year, and this excludes the undisclosed amount PepsiCo offered for snack firm Pipers yesterday.

DAX 30

Guttering around with a second consecutive little doji in what is clearly a countertrend move. At a political event in Germany yesterday Friedrich Merz, the man who plans to succeed Angela Merkel as party leader but who is also chairman of Blackrock’s arm in the country, said the firm would cooperate with prosecutors. It is being investigated for its role in cum/ex-dividend transactions in order to avoid tax.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11200; stop above 11755. Target 10400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short; stop above 11700. Next target at 10700.

FTSE 100

The commodity channel index looks turned down yesterday suggesting consolidation since mid-October might be coming to an end.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Short at 7080; stop above 7200.  First target 6865.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 7095; stop well above 7200. First target 6900.

S&P 500

Recovering half of October’s losses in what might end up turning out to be a 3-step bounce. Note that the index is no longer oversold.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at an average at 2740; stop well above 2780. Target 2600.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

A bit like the Grand Old Duke of York: when they were up they were up; when they were down they were down.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square again.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Showing small signs of life as momentum attempts to turn bullish.   

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1440; stop below 1.1330. Target 1.1700.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small long 1.1415; stop below 1.1300. Target 1.1600.

GOLD

Stuck at this new slightly higher trading band between 1210 and 1240.   

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 1227; stop above 1240.  Target 1190.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.