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Market Outlook: Fed infuriates Trump

Raises interest rates again
December 20, 2018

As widely expected and loudly trumpeted, the Federal reserve, at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, increased the Fed Funds target rate by another 25 basis points aiming to keep this at a mid-point of between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent. Chairman Jerome Powell added, ‘’political considerations play no role in our decision about monetary policy.’’ The committee also trimmed expected increases in 2019 to two rate rises rather than the original three. This sent shares tumbling, including Facebook which lost 7 per cent of face value as it admitted to even more data breaches and Softbank, Japan’s biggest ever IPO, managed to drop 14.5 per cent from this week’s listing level.

Since 21:00 GMT yesterday all flights in and out of South London’s Gatwick airport have been cancelled because of reports that drones were spotted around the runway. Incoming flights were diverted to other airports and passengers were stuck in planes. Sussex police are investigating, this on one of the busiest of all holiday periods. Talk about ‘disruptive technologies’.

DAX 30

Sagging again in this rather sorry week. City AM reports today that German media giant Der Spiegel news magazine has found that a star reporter of theirs invented people, quotes, and even whole articles. More fake news!

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 11000; stop above 11000. Target 10500.

FTSE 100

Dipping below the bottom of the important broadening top chart pattern this morning, perilously close to trend line support taken from 2009’s low. Yesterday’s dragonfly doji has, surprisingly, not added to bearish momentum. This week and this month’s closing levels could be a severe body blow to this market. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Will re-sell on a daily close below 6700.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 6770; stop well above 6900. Target 6200.

S&P 500

Slippage gathering traction keeping momentum strongly bearish. Yesterday’s close was the lowest since early September 2017, which might help concentrate minds. Closes tomorrow and at the end of the month at or below 2500 categorically would complete a very major, irregular, head and shoulders top.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New short at 2500; stop well above 2625. Target

 

POSITION TAKER:   Still square and might remain so until January.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Holding inside the 1.2600 to 1.3400 range that’s held since June. No mean feat considering the panto they’re putting on in Parliament.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2650; stop below 1.2475. Target 1.2875

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Obviously trying, even in the face of the European Commission announcing a raft of ‘essential and urgent’ measures in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1395; stop below 1.1300. Target 1.1600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Nonsensical moves in thin markets as someone panics. Prepare for more of the same, here and all over the place.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1238; stop above 1255. Target 1212.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.