Data from Beijing this morning show that there was no increase in consumer prices last month, which saw annualised CPI drop from 2.2 to 1.9 per cent – back to where it stood in the summer. More alarming was the fall in the increase in producer prices, from 2.7 per cent in November to a mere 0.9 per cent acceleration in December – the slowest pace since October 2016. Sovereign bond yields have anticipated this result, having dropped sharply over several months.
Noises from the US Federal Reserve continue to point to an increasingly determined effort to back-pedal. Minutes of their latest meeting, published yesterday, note that volatile stock markets in December, slowing global growth and subdued inflation mean that the board ‘could afford to be patient about further policy firming’.
DAX 30
A tiny little shooting star candle yesterday under the trend line from 2009’s low and just ahead of Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement resistance. Watch the CCI at today’s close.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 10445; stop above 11050. Target 9300.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 10745; stop well above 11050. First target 10200 and probably 9250.
FTSE 100
A shooting star candle yesterday as we had thought, on Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement resistance, hints that an interim high might be in place.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 6905; stop above 7040. First target 6600.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 6770; stop above 6950. Target 6200.
S&P 500
Can a doji, as tiny as yesterday’s, mark an interim top? Watch the Commodity Channel Index at today’s close.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2500; stop well above 2625. Target 2200.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2485; stop above 2625. Target 2075.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Trying to break above trend line resistance but then, we’ve got power-crazed politicians to deal with.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.2660; stop below 1.2600. Target 1.2900.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Good, we have lift off! Against a background of US dollar weakness, and credit ratings agency Fitch threatening to remove the US government’s AAA rating, the euro has broken out of its straightjacket since late October.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Took profits at my original target at 1.1500 – and now obviously wishing I’d waited a bit longer. That’s life!
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Retesting the 1300 area on US dollar weakness.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1292; stop well above 1300. First target 1240.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
