Sovereign debt yields are falling in all too many G20 countries as the outlook for the economy and central bank target interest rates undergo a very serious review; this is because all too many have been consistently wrong in their forecasts and wrong in their assessment of the current situation. March 2019 has seen one of the biggest ever, both absolute and relative, drop in the rates on (especially long-dated) US Treasuries. Benchmark 10-year US TNotes yield 2.35 per cent, equal to the Fed Funds target mid-point, and likewise New Zealand ones at 1.75 per cent.
Data out this morning show that in the year to February 2019 UK automobile output slumped by 15.3 per cent, the 9th consecutive monthly decline. This is because exports, which account for 80 per cent of the demand for British made cars, has collapsed – though the manufacturers are blaming Brexit.
DAX 30
A little doji yesterday bang on first Fibonacci retracement support denotes indecision.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11450; stop well above 11625. First target 10860.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 11550; stop above 11825. Target 10600.
FTSE 100
Machinations at Westminster mercifully having little impact here. Goes to show the country rules itself and gets on with business despite the political class.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 7190; stop above 7370. Target 6830.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 7190; stop above 7370. First target 6600.
S&P 500
Just holding at the psychological 2800 level.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2800; stop above 2865. Target 2600.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2800; stop above 2900. Target 2550.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Failing again at the top of triangle consolidation.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Saggy, baggy again, not helped by Parisian protestors being greeted by military might.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Settling below 1320 and almost on the top of the old channel. Might re-sell if it ends the week below this line.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
