Today Australia’s statistics office published quarterly inflation data showing CPI was flat in the first 3 months of this year, taking the annualised rate down to 1.3 per cent from 1.8 per cent growth in the last 3 months of 2018; the weighted and trimmed means came in at 1.6 and 1.4 per cent annualised, respectively. This is the lowest CPI has been since September 2016 and compares to a recent high at 2.1 per cent in March 2017. Worth noting that CPI grew at 1 per cent only in Q2 2016 and Q2 1999, and has been negative only twice: -0.4 per cent in Q3 1997 and -1.3 per cent in Q2 1962.
Ahead of this week’s Belt and Road summit in Beijing, where 37 heads of state are expected, PM Theresa May has given Chinese telecoms giant Huawei the green light to roll out 5G infrastructure in Britain despite reservations among some of her cabinet. This runs counter to President Trump’s ideas on the subject with which the Australian government has sided.
DAX 30
Very overbought on the daily chart and sort of dangling, with a hanging man candle, yesterday.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Very overbought on the daily chart as oil majors do yesterday’s lifting, taking the index to its highest point since early October.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Lots of noise in the media and Twittersphere as some US stock market indices inch to a new record high – though not the Dow Industrials which managed a high at 26,657.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Giving up the will to live as we push into the triangle’s apex and climate change protesters join MPs in Westminster and another 71 are arrested.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Eventually stopped out of my sad little long position. Really cannot recommend FX at the moment.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Momentum has just turned bearish as the Greek and Italian governments (the most indebted in the EU) announced their budget deficits as a proportion of GDP increased.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.1245; stop below 1.1170. Target 1.1380.
POSITION TAKER: Long at 1.1225; stop below 1.1170. Target 1.1425.
GOLD
Momentum increasingly bearish and gold bugs slightly seasick as we settle below the Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement support and complete the head and shoulders top. We are within spitting distance of testing the bottom of the trend channel that funnelled the rally in the second half of last year. Watch other precious metal moves for confirmation.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1283; stop above 1290. Next target 1260.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1292; stop above 1290. Target 1185.
