Inland Homes (AIM:INL:62p), a leading brownfield developer, housebuilder and partnership housing company with a focus on the South and South East of England, has been granted planning permission, subject to the signing of a s106 agreement, on its flagship site, Wilton Park in leafy Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire. This is a very affluent area of the country that is located within 23 minutes to London Marylebone by rail, and offers quick access to the M40, too.
Furthermore, gaining consent is a significant step forward for the long awaited development of the 100-acre site, described by upmarket estate agency Savills “as the best residential opportunity in southern England.”Planning permission will enable delivery of 350 homes, as well as commercial and community space within a parkland setting, with an estimated gross development value of £350m. A further part of the site is subject to a draft allocation for development, which could provide up to 250 additional homes and 200,000 sq ft of commercial space.
Inland’s management team is currently considering their options for the site, but no matter whether land is sold off as parcels, developed in house or through a joint-venture partnership, the planning consent will lead to a major increase in the carrying value of the site. In the meantime, the site continues to generate annual rental income of £1.5m from residential and commercial occupiers.
To put the magnitude of the potential profits from this site in to perspective, Inland acquired the former Ministry of Defence site five years ago for £35m, including deferred consideration. Once developed, and based on a 25 per cent gross margin and an 80 per cent profit share, I estimate this implies a post-tax profit north of £50m for Inland, adding a thumping 24p per Inland’s shareholders’ equity, or 40 per cent of its current share price. I would stress that these are my forecasts as analysts have yet to update their models.
Moreover, there could be further good news on the planning front later this month, as Inland’s delayed planning decision at Cheshunt Lakeside, Hertfordshire is scheduled to be heard on 25 June 2019. The site is located just outside the M25 and only 27 minutes from London's Liverpool Street station by train. In June 2016, First Property entered into a joint venture whose purpose was to acquire a site in Cheshunt, Hertfordshire, obtain planning permission and ultimately sell the land. Under the terms of the joint-venture agreement, Inland has an obligation to fund 50 per cent of the costs of the site and is entitled to receive 50 per cent of the net returns.
Planning application for 1,853 units was recommended for approval by the planning officers, but the planning committee of Broxbourne District Council resolved to defer the decision, requesting clarification on a few matters (for instance, car park allocation). Inland is hopeful of winning approval at the forthcoming hearing later this month. A positive decision on that site will result in another significant increase in its valuation. Bearing in mind the timing of thee planning decisions, Inland will release a pre-close trading update in early October 2019 in order to be able to offer greater clarification on their financial implications, having sensibly decided to move its next financial year-end from 30 June 2019 to 30 September 2019.
In the circumstances, it’s hardly surprising that Inland’s shares have reacted positively. Even before factoring in any valuation uplifts the company’s market capitalisation of £127m is 40 per cent below Inland’s end 2018 European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA) net asset value (NAV) of £213m (103.6p per share). The potential for the realisation of substantial gains on the company’s land bank as it passes through the planning process, and an attractive share price discount to NAV, were major bull points in the investment thesis I outlined when I included Inland’s shares, at 57.75p, in my 2019 Bargain Shares portfolio. Strong buy.
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