Figures published yesterday by the ONS showed that, despite GDP falling 0.4 per cent this April, and manufacturing dragged down by plunging vehicles built, unemployment remained at 3.8 per cent (1.3 million people), its lowest since 1974. Employment grew by 32,000 in the same three months taking the total in work to a new record 32.7 million. Average earnings grew at an annualised 3.4 per cent, 3.1 per cent excluding bonus payments. Women in work in the 3 months to April hit a record high of 72 per cent – versus 80.3 per cent of males in work – possibly because they’ve postponed retirement or because two or more incomes per household are needed to maintain a certain standard of living.
Data for the Eurozone was not as upbeat, with the June investor sentiment measured by Sentix dropping to -3.3 from May’s +5.3. Some believe the fairly sharp fall was caused by President Trump’s trade policies and threat to meddle with French wine exports. The ECB is still expecting the area to grow by 1.2 per cent this year.
DAX 30
A small shooting star type candle against the trend line with no momentum.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11870; stop above 12200. Target 11325.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
A decent sized shooting star candle against the Fibonacci 76.4 per cent retracement resistance level suggests an interim high, something which will possibly be backed up by the commodity channel index today.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New small short at 7385; stop above 7470. Target 7100.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
A second consecutive daily dragonfly doji at 76.4 per cent Fibonacci retracement resistance and the commodity channel index yet to turn down. This is not a bullish picture. Yesterday President Trump Tweeted: ‘’The Fed interest rate way too high, added to the ridiculous quantitative tightening! They don’t have a clue!’’
SHORT TERM TRADER: New short at 2885; stop above 2960. Target 2800.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
The MACD steadily bullish despite prices going nowhere fast.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2675; stop below 1.2640. Target 1.2925.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Bullish momentum increasing as we consolidate above what had been trend line resistance. Yesterday President Trump also Tweeted: ‘’The euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the US at a big disadvantage.’’
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.1315; stop below 1.1250. Target 1.1450.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
All rather erratic as we bounce smartly following yesterday’s hammer candle.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1333; stop above 1360. Target 1285.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1340; stop above 1360. Target 1270.
