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Market Outlook: Activist released in Hong Kong today

Walks away from prison and into protests
June 17, 2019

Student leader Joshua Wong, a key figure in 2014’s Occupy movement, was released from jail today. ‘’I will join to fight against this evil law [potential extradition to the Chinese mainland]. I believe this is the time for her, Carrie Lam the liar, to step down’’, reports CNBC. Estimates of the number of protestors out this Sunday range from 338,000 (police estimate) to 2 million (organisers’ guess); they were out again today and government headquarters remain closed.

Stock Connect, the link, which will allow dual share-listing in London and Shanghai, should kick in today after a lengthy delay; just in time for today’s UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue. The system allows UK firms to raise money from Chinese investors and vice-versa.

DAX 30

Extraordinary tiny little doji candle last week as the MACD looks set to turn down this week. Deutsche Bank announced the overhaul of its trading operations including the creation of a ‘bad bank’ worth up to 50 billion euros. The question is: Will this be anywhere close to the value of its existing derivatives book?

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 11870; stop above 12200. Target 11325.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

Another index with a weekly doji and a MACD that is looking to turn down.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Small short at 7385; stop above 7470. Target 7100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

A bearish MACD for a third consecutive week and a tiny doji close to the highs or early and late 2018, and again in April this year. Do you really want to go long here?

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2885; stop above 2960. Target 2800.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Back down close to this year’s lows as all Tory leadership candidates mean Brexit.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of my short position for a small loss on Friday’s fall.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Retreating suddenly from long term trend line resistance despite momentum not being especially bearish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1315; stop below 1.1250. Target 1.1450.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Overbought on Friday’s fairly dramatic shooting star candle which suggests the market’s found an intermediate high.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1333; stop above 1360. Target 1285.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1340; stop above 1360. Target 1270.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.