I had an incredibly informative results call with the directors of nationwide building services contractor T Clarke (CTO:105p). The company ended the half year with a bumper £370m order book, having won around £130m worth of tenders since the end of 2018 and delivered 12 per cent higher revenues of £171m in the six month trading period. It’s increasingly profitable work, as highlighted by the uptick in operating margin from 2.6 per cent to 2.9 per cent, which helped drive the 24 per cent increase in first half underlying pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to £4.6m and 8.67p, respectively.
Finance director Trevor Mitchell confirmed to me that 96 per cent of house broker N+1 Singer’s full-year revenue estimate of £340m is covered by the contracted order book, and half of the broker’s 2020 revenue forecast of £360m, too. Both Mr Mitchell and chief executive Mark Lawrence reiterated their confidence in hitting the broker’s numbers which point to full-year adjusted pre-tax profit and EPS rising by 16 per cent to £9.3m and 17.5p in 2019, respectively. They are also confident of achieving N+1 Singer’s 2020 pre-tax profit and EPS estimates of £9.9m and 18.6p.
But TClarke’s share price fell by 12 per cent post the results as investors focused on news that some of the company’s London clients were holding back starting their new developments given UK political uncertainty. Also, some less well funded rivals in the London market are desperate for work which has created pricing pressure. TClarke clearly isn’t and the board were well ahead of the game to mitigate any impact in London as they have already expanded into Europe to take advantage of high margin data centre work. This has led to some significant opportunities: TClarke already has tenders out on two major European projects (contract values of £30m to £40m) which if successful will start in March 2020. The company also has an impressive bid pipeline across the whole of the UK.
In fact, Mr Mitchell says the business has £1bn of tenders out with clients including work at Manchester Airport, and the new Channel4 studios in Leeds (TClarke won the tender on the London studio, so looks well placed). Moreover, the corporate presentation accompanying the interims results is absolutely jammed pack full of tenders which, based on an historic win rate of between one-in-three to one-in-four, indicates a sizeable opportunity for the company to exploit.
The point being that investors’ misperception over TClarke’s trading prospects has created an investment opportunity for investors to exploit. That’s because there is actually a high probability that TClarke will generate cumulative EPS of 36p over the 2019 and 2020 financial years, in-line with analyst estimates. That sum equates to a third of the share price. Also, as seasonal working capital build eases in the second half then TClarke’s half year cash pile of £4.7m should double to about £10m by the year-end, a sum worth 23p a share. In other words, the shares are effectively being priced on a cash-adjusted current year price/earnings (PE) ratio of 4.7. There is a progressive dividend, t00. The board lifted the interim payout per share by 14 per cent to 0.75p, and N+1 Singer predicts a 10 per cent hike to 4.4p for the full-year, implying the shares offer a prospective dividend yield of 4.3 per cent.
True, the shares have pulled back since I last advised buying, at 128p, in mid-May (‘TClarke reports a robust start to 2019 financial year’, 16 May 2019), albeit they are still well ahead of my 90p entry point last December and the company has since paid out its 2018 final dividend of 3.34p (‘Profit from a buoyant earnings cycle’, 7 December 2018). However, I strongly feel this is a buying opportunity given that the current miserly rating is completely at odds with the trading prospects of the company and the strong likelihood that the directors will hit their 2019 and 2020 internal budgets. Indeed, during our results call, Mr Mitchell told me that the business “is trading ahead of internal budgets for turnover”. That’s well worth noting as is the ability of TClarke to convert what is undoubtedly a bumper pipeline of work into firm orders.
Offering 43 per cent upside to my maintained 150p target price, I feel that the shares are well worth buying.
■ Simon Thompson's new book Successful Stock Picking Strategies and his second book Stock Picking for Profit can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order. The books are being sold through no other source and are priced at £16.95 each plus postage and packaging of £2.95, or £3.75 if you purchase both books. Details of the content of both books can be viewed on www.ypdbooks.com.
