In a survey carried out every 3 years the Bank for International Settlements says that FX trading volume in London increased by 6 per cent up until April 2019, taking its global share to 43 per cent – comfortably ahead of New York. It also, and more surprisingly, found that the UK overtook the US in terms of the highest average daily turnover of interest rate derivatives traded, grabbing a 50 per cent share. Catherine McGuiness, policy chair of the City of London said, ‘’despite challenging times, the fundamentals of the City remain strong. [The figures] are a clear vote of confidence in the City’’.
Yesterday the US Department of Justice accused the precious metals trading desk at JP Morgan of running, over 8 years, a racketeering conspiracy to manipulate markets. Global head of the department Michael Nowak faces charges of a ‘‘massive, multi-year scheme…[to] defraud market participants…through a pattern of racketeering activity’’ and together with another 2 colleagues ‘’engage in a complex scheme to trade precious metals in a way that negatively affected the natural balance of supply and demand’’. The bank declined to comment.
DAX 30
A dragonfly doji yesterday and a fading bullish MACD after 8 consecutive higher candles suggest the rally is starting a correction. Note that yesterday Guenther Oettinger, EU commissioner in charge off budget talks, said failure to agree a long-term budget plan by January would put ‘’Europe in a difficult economic and geopolitical situation’’. Germany, the biggest contributor, wants to limit EU spending to 1 per cent of economic output; others want 1.3 per cent.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
A little shooting star yesterday and fading bullish momentum hints that this market is starting to roll over at the 50 per cent retracement area.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Another index with a slightly bearish candle yesterday – hanging man – and divergence with an oscillator (MACD weakening). Add in the possible cancellation of a Saudi Aramco IPO, as well as WeWork postponing its IPO – causing the value of its bonds to tumble, according to the Financial Times, adds another layer of worry.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Stumbling on the way up as PM Johnson’s visit to Luxembourg was marred by loud anti-Brexit protesters at a press conference.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2345; stop below 1.2225. Target 1.2550.
POSITION TAKER: Long at 1.2500; stop below 1.2300. Target 1.2750.
EURO/US DOLLAR
Slipping a little as bullish momentum wanes.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Long at 1.1105; stop below 1.0900. Target 1.1350.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
While still holding neatly in pre-established ranges it’s interesting to see how gold and silver’s sparkle fades a little this month while palladium remains well-bid.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.
