Join our community of smart investors

Market Outlook: Fed cuts, splits and misses

Shaves 25 basis points to 1.75 to 2.00 per cent target
September 19, 2019

At yesterday’s[EN1]  much anticipated FOMC rate-setting meeting members of the committee decided to cut the target Fed Funds rate by one quarter of a per cent so that their band now stands between 1.75 and 2.00 per cent, the minimum market participants had expected. The trouble is, a liquidity crunch this week has meant that this rate has already traded at 2.3 per cent and that the central bank was forced to offer shovel-fulls of cash to temper the overnight repo rate. In his statement chairman Powell said, ‘’this is a time of difficult judgements, as you can see, disparate perspectives. I really do think that’s nothing but healthy’’.

 

Once again, at today’s rate-setting meeting the Bank of Japan has agreed to

do nothing, and just keep hoping things will improve; this modus operandi is widespread among developed market politicians. More worrying is that today a Tokyo district court has decided that the only 3 executives of the Tokyo Electric Power Co who have been charged over 2011’s Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster are not guilty. Leaking radioactive water and waste are still a big issue for the nation.

DAX 30

Hanging on in there with a fading bullish MACD after 8 consecutive higher candles suggest the latest rally is stalling again at the 12500 area.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

With so much going on in Britain these days this index, as many other facets of the economy, seems stilled by the headlights. The Bank of England, whose MPC meets today to set interest rates, would be silly to tinker.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

While we’ve filled the little gap opened up on Monday, yesterday’s dragonfly doji is not bullish, especially as its daily range is a bit bigger than that of the last 2 days.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

We just can’t seem to get any bullish momentum behind this little rally.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2345; stop below 1.2325. Target 1.2550.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2500; stop below 1.2300. Target 1.2750.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Another currency that somehow just cannot get going, with or without President Trump’s Tweets.  

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1105; stop below 1.0900. Target 1.1350.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Closing bang on trend line support.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.