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Market Outlook: Holidays in China again today

Ancestor worship in Hong Kong
October 7, 2019

Mainland China continues with its National Day holiday (but they’ll be back at work tomorrow), while in an increasingly chaotic Hong Kong they are off work for a special day of ancestor memorials, including the sweeping and sprucing up of graves. A movable feast as it’s the ninth day of the ninth lunar month, the custom stems from the Han dynasty (202 BC to 220 AD). In parallel, the first two people arrested over the weekend for wearing face masks at a demonstration will be tried today.

Using data from the UK’s HMRC tax office, accountancy group UHY Hacker Young estimates that 795,000 people and businesses have since June asked for an extension because they are struggling to pay their tax bill. Linked to the fact that insolvencies are up 14 per cent in the latest tax year, the firm puts the blame on the ‘Brexit-related slowdown’. The sum involved is £2.3 billion.

DAX 30

Looking increasingly like a rather flabby triple top just under Fibonacci 76.4 per cent retracement resistance from 2018’s record high. Zero momentum.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 12365; stop above 12275. Target 11635.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12350; stop above 12400. Target 11425.

FTSE 100

Despite the decent bounce late last week momentum is decidedly bearish. Another index with a potential interim triple top/head & shoulders against Fibonacci retracement resistance. All eyes on what Boris does next and whether the EU might blink.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   New little short at 7140; stop above 7275. Target 7025.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

S&P 500

Despite the strong bounce late last week we’ve ended up with momentum turning bearish and a clear hanging man weekly candle – a bearish sign.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 2945; stop above 2965. Target 2820.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Irrelevant price action last week. The Mayor of London has sent out warning emails that London is likely to face a series of demonstrations, Extinction Rebellion kicking it off today, over the next fortnight.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.2290; stop well below 1.2200. Target 1.2500.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Quite the depressing little chart. Over the weekend, French President Macron has said Britain has until the end of this week to overhaul its Brexit plan, reports The Guardian.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.0970; stop below 1.0880. Target 1.1100.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

A little hanging man candle last week as gold tries to decide whether it’ll slide quietly under, and stay below, the 1485 area.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1535. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1560. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.