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Market Outlook: Another messy election result

Spain’s fourth in four years
November 11, 2019

Spanish current Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist party picked up the most votes in yesterday’s general election but once again, not enough to push through a government, and in fact fewer than last time round. In a shock to the establishment the new far-right Vox party doubled the number of votes that it had received in April making it Spain’s third most important political party, conservative PP in second and Ciudadanos slumping from 57 to just 10 seats this time. In Bolivia, after weeks of protests contesting the election result in October, long-standing indigenous leader Evo Morales stood down yesterday on realising he didn’t have the army’s support.

As reported in FT Weekend, asset managing giant Invesco saw $1 billion flowing out of the funds it manages each and every week over the last year, net withdrawals from mutual funds totalling $54 billion. Last week Morningstar downgraded two of its funds, both managed by Neil Woodford protégé Mark Barnett, who commented: ‘’my funds are appropriately positioned, well diversified and able to generate liquidity should investors wish to buy or sell’’.

DAX 30

Almost overbought and just shy of the record high, many will be urging this index on to better things. The Financial Times reports that at Wednesday’s ECB meeting new head Christine Lagarde will face calls for an overhaul of the setting of monetary policy with governing council members pushing for a vote each.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

FTSE 100

A miniature shooting star candle last week with the index settling just below Fibonacci retracement resistance at 7375 on Friday.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   New short at 7370; stop above 7435. Target 7175.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

 

S&P 500

Almost overbought as the index settles between the upper edges of the 2 broadening top long term patterns.

 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

 

Bullish momentum waning a little as we edge off recent highs.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Stopped out of long-held long position at a loss.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Long at 1.2950; stop below 1.2750. Target 1.3350.

EURO/US DOLLAR

A bearish engulfing candle last week’s kept momentum just bearish and underlines the uphill job Madame Lagarde will have getting Germany onside at the ECB, and how few tools she has.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1.1050; stop above 1.1100. Target 1.0930.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Gold bugs feeling the sting in the tail of this precious metal after weeks of inertia. A bearish engulfing candle with a range bigger than the previous 4 weeks has increased the negative MACD.  

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1520; stop above 1500. Target 1440.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 1507; stop above 1520. Target 1440.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.