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AG Barr suffers volume decline on tough comparators

The volume decline at the drinks company was attributed to a tough comparative period in 2018
September 24, 2019

This set of half-year results for AG Barr (BAG) was preceded by a warning in July that volumes sold would be impacted by the return to the company’s traditional pricing strategy, which had been adjusted during the first half of 2018 in response to the introduction of the soft drinks industry levy, carbon dioxide shortages, and exceptionally warm weather – a case of "placing volume performance ahead of value".

IC TIP: Hold at 620p

But chief executive Roger White said that volume comparisons in the second half won't be quite so skewed as trading normalised during the latter part of the year – “less tricky water” as he put it. Trading in the second half is also expected to improve as AG Barr addresses difficulties at Rubicon stills brand and Rockstar – which it operates under a partnership agreement – through new products and improved recipes. Mr White reckoned that any price increases would be justified by a better quality product.

Analysts at Investec expect pre-tax profits of £36m during the year to January 2020, giving EPS of 25.7p, increasing to £37.5m and 26.7p in FY2021.

AG BARR (BAG)   
ORD PRICE:620pMARKET VALUE:£700m
TOUCH:619-621p12-MONTH HIGH:980pLOW: 552p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.7%PE RATIO:22
NET ASSET VALUE:181p*NET CASH:£4.6m
Half-year to 27 JulTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201813718.212.73.9
201912313.59.64.0
% change-11-26-25+3
Ex-div:3 Oct   
Payment:25 Oct   
*Includes intangible assets of £102m, or 91p a share