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Amerisur sticks to 2017 exit rate

Average daily output for 2017 will be lower than first expected, but the year-end production goal remains
September 26, 2017

Amerisur Resources (AMER) published half-year results on the same day Brent crude closed above $57 (£42) a barrel for the first time since 2015. Improving market conditions for producers – a phrase we use cautiously – is of course good news for investors in the Colombia-based group. The news might have been even more welcome had July’s period of social unrest not slowed down a ramp-up in production from the Platanillo field. Then again, that’s the price for ‘frontier’ drilling.

IC TIP: Buy at 16.5p

As it is, the company is guiding for an average of 5,000 barrels per day (bopd) in 2017, down from an initial estimate of 6,000-7,000 bopd. In the first half of the year, Amerisur’s fields yielded 4,475 bopd on average, following an intensive programme of drilling. The outlay on new exploration wells – including the successes at Platanillo-22 and Mariposa-1 – meant cash and cash equivalents fell $13m in the period, partially offset by higher sales prices and a per-barrel operating netback of $29.60, 164 per cent up on 2016. Indeed, one would expect the profit per barrel to increase, so long as oil prices stay above $50 and Amerisur manages to finish the year pumping more than 7,000 barrels a day. Encouragingly, this target exit rate has not been altered by recent events.

On average, analysts now expect pre-tax profit of $16.5m and adjusted EPS of 1.2¢ this year, rising to $46.7m and 2.7¢ in 2018.

AMERISUR RESOURCES (AMER)  
ORD PRICE:16.5pMARKET VALUE:£200m
TOUCH:16.5-16.8p12-MONTH HIGH:33pLOW: 15p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:N/A
NET ASSET VALUE:17¢*NET CASH:$24.4m^
Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201624.4-6.8-0.7nil
201738.2-1.6-0.2nil
% change+56---
Ex-div:n/a   
Payment:n/a   
£1=$1.35 *Includes intangible assets of $45.9m, or 3.8¢ a share ^Excludes $4.6m restricted cash.