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Buy into WANdisco’s momentum

The specialist in active data replication offers an entry point to big data and the cloud, its momentum grounded in high-profile partnerships with tech behemoths
December 7, 2017

'Big data' and 'the cloud' are phrases regularly dropped in conversations by tech enthusiasts. However, their buzzword status should not belie their importance. Research from IT specialist Cisco implies the addressable market for these phenomena will reach $10bn (£7.4bn) by 2020 – reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 35 per cent. And, as companies manage increasing swathes of data, they face pressures to provide continuous access to this from any location, without downtime. Enter WANdisco (WAND), whose patented ‘active data replication’ technology (known as ‘Fusion’) replicates constantly changing data to the cloud and on-premises data centres, with “guaranteed consistency”.

IC TIP: Buy at 568p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Excellent bookings and revenue growth

Cash burn falling fast

High-profile clients

Burgeoning big data and cloud markets

Bear points

Lossmaking

Share sales by co-founders

WANdisco’s bookings grew by 73 per cent year on year to $10.2m during the six months to 30 June 2017, largely driven by a whopping 173 per cent rise in data and cloud bookings, to $7m. The smaller source code management segment also contributed $3.2m in bookings – broadly flat against the previous year. Group revenues, in turn, have risen hugely from $5.6m to $9.7m. This growth helped to generate a maiden cash profit of $0.3m, before adjustments for capitalised development costs.

That all said, WANdisco still reports statutory losses. But these have contracted significantly over the past few years (see table) and – all being well – analysts forecast reported profits for the year to December 2020.

Cash burn had also been significantly reduced at the half-year stage from $5.3m to $0.6m, representing effective cost management. Expectations of positive free cash flow by the year-end mean investors may have seen an end to cash calls by the company following a placing earlier this week – the $10m placing at 550p was so oversubscribed the company ended up raising $22m, issuing shares equivalent to 7.8 per cent of existing share capital. At the same time as the placing, co-founders David Richards (currently chief executive and interim chairman) and Yeturu Aahlad respectively sold £2.75m- and £1.9m-worth of shares, equivalent to almost one-fifth and 12 per cent of their respective holdings. The cash from the placing will be allocated towards driving new strategic partnerships and revenue growth.  

At this stage in its development, WANdisco is fundamentally a momentum stock, its shares buoyed by newsflow and partnership updates. But this momentum is grounded in contracts with major international technology enterprises including Amazon Web Services, Cisco and Google Cloud, among others. Not to mention an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) agreement with IBM, which generates royalties and led to Fusion’s largest ever order in March – a $4.1m contract with a “major financial services multinational”. The group has also diversified its customer base, signing its first contracts in retail and healthcare this financial year. And while the scale of the market opportunity does mean an ever-present threat of competition, the quality of the client base, as well as patents, provide reassurance.

Broker Peel Hunt expects some other partners will also become OEMs, representing a “major positive” and bringing further royalty income. Indeed, in November, the group entered a high-profile, non-exclusive OEM sales agreement with Virtustream – a Dell business.

WANDISCO (WAND)   
ORD PRICE:568pMARKET VALUE:£215m*
TOUCH:565-570p12-MONTH HIGH:890pLOW: 173p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:nilFORWARD PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:1.36¢*NET CASH:$6.6m*
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax loss ($m)**Loss per share (¢)**Dividend per share (¢)
201411.2-39.7-159nil
201511.0-31.0-104nil
201611.4-10.0-28nil
2017**17.0-12.7-32nil
2018**20.5-8.5-2nil
% change+21--nil
Normal market size:750   
Matched bargain trading    
Beta:0.53   

*Does not reflect $22m placing, NAV includes intangible assets of $6.1m, or 16¢ a share

**Peel Hunt forecasts, prior to $22m placing