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Studios soften a tough year for ITV

Concerns about the future of TV have hammered the UK group’s shares, but we think this is a major over-reaction
February 28, 2018

ITV’s (ITV) new chief executive, Carolyn McCall, doesn’t mince her words. “It’s just a fact,” she said of the rising cost of content (one of the biggest challenges currently facing the global media industry) on a call following the release of 2017 annual results. That ‘fact’ has increased the amount the group is due to spend on programming to £1.06bn this year, with a further £400m-worth of schedule costs expected in 2019.

IC TIP: Buy at 163p

But Ms McCall has inherited a company that's just as likely to benefit from the incredible value in original TV content as it is to suffer. Its studios business – which now contributes around half of the group’s total revenue – produced more than 8,400 hours of programming in 2017 and has started to sell to major US competitors, including Amazon and Netflix. Non-UK sales made up over half of the studios’ total revenue thanks to the strong global reach for shows such as Poldark and The Voice.

Still, the ex-easyJet boss has decided it’s time to refresh the strategy: “We’re not trying to uproot ITV because we don’t need to, but the world has changed since the last strategy was set out.” Little has been confirmed about what the strategic refresh will entail, but management has confirmed between £15m and £20m of investment in online and data. This and the increased programme costs mean pre-tax profits and EPS are expected to fall to £775m and 15.5p, respectively, in 2018 and remain flat in the following year, according to broker Numis (from £800m and 16p in 2017).

ITV’s online offering is an important platform considering the dwindling demand for traditional advertising. Digital channels and the ITV Hub have increased the size of the group’s young audience and given an outlet for advertisers to target 16- to-24-year-olds, who are hard to reach via traditional marketing methods. An 11 per cent increase in online ads helped soften the blow from a 5 per cent decline in net advertising revenues from traditional channels – once the largest contributor to ITV’s top line. 

ITV (ITV)    
ORD PRICE:163pMARKET VALUE:£6.57bn
TOUCH:163.1-163.2p12-MONTH HIGH:219p143p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.8%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:17p*NET DEBT:125%
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20132.394358.33.5
20142.5960511.64.7
20152.9764112.46.0
20163.0655311.27.2
20173.1350010.27.8
% change+2-10-9+8
Ex-div:12 Apr   
Payment:24 May   
*Includes intangible assets of £1.6bn, or 40.8p a share