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Strike big with Hollywood Bowl

We think the growing, cash-generative business will continue to prosper in the New Year
January 3, 2019

The leisure sector is a competitive one, but Hollywood Bowl (BOWL) appears to be striking all the right notes. It’s the largest bowling alley operator in the UK with estate of 58 leasehold sites under the Hollywood Bowl and AMF brands, and it has plans place to become even bigger. The company specialises in operating large, high-quality bowling centres typically co-located with cinema and casual dining sites in the middle of large, high-footfall, edge-of-town leisure and retail developments. These centres are meant to be fun for the whole family, with at least 12 bowling lanes, on-site American themed dining, licensed bars, and family amusement areas.

IC TIP: Buy at 200p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Strong cash generation
Leading UK bowling alley operator
Internally funded expansion plans
High margins

Bear points

Competitive leisure market
Concerns about consumer spending post-Brexit

Britons will soon see more Hollywood Bowls dotted around the country. The company is planning to open an average of two new units each year over the medium term, and new locations have already been secured for two openings per year up to 2022. Funding for these expansion plans will come from internal cash flows. Last year, Hollywood Bowl generated free cash flow of £19.6m after £4.3m of expansionary capital investment, which was some £2m better than the forecast from Shore Capital. Those locations that it’s opened recently seem to be doing well, as are the nine refurbishments and rebrandings undertaken last year, which have so far exceeded the targeted 33 per cent return on investment.  

Once lanes are built, chief executive Steven Burns describes bowling as a 100 per cent gross margin business. Gross margins are slightly less eye-popping on food, drink and amusement sales, but overall group gross margins came in at an impressive 86.1 per cent last year, consistent with the year before. Operating margins, meanwhile, rose to 20.8 per cent from 19.5 per cent helped by a 6.1 per cent rise in spend per game, as well as a small drop in average rent and staff cost per centre, despite the rise in the minimum wage. Making a rough adjustment for the company's leases, the attractive margins supports a solid return on average capital employed (ROCE) of 13.9 per cent.

Rising spend per game has been helped by the company's pricing strategy, which aims to keep a trip to the bowling alley a fun and affordable family activity. Hollywood Bowl has begun experimenting with “dynamic pricing”, such as making a booking £1 cheaper if made in advance, and £1 more expensive for same day bookings. It has also revamped its drink and food menu, and introduced lane side ordering and new amusement games. Indeed, average food spend last year rose 5.4 per cent, drink spend was up 7 per cent and amusement spend grew 8.3 per cent.

Management has suggested that it sees an opportunity to start a mini-golf division, although this would not fall under the Hollywood Bowl branding. This would play into the company’s idea of creating a 'leisure hub', where many casual dining and amusement options are available all in one place. Since the company already positions new locations with other amenities such as cinemas and restaurants, one might wonder whether this adds competition to its other nearby competitors, especially for Hollywood Bowl’s diners. But Mr Burns says that the leisure hub idea helps get people into the area, and that the diner is not meant to have the capacity for every bowler.

The company has proven itself to be resilient enough to withstand tough market conditions with a set of full-year results for 2018 that beat analyst expectations. Analysts at Shore Capital said that Hollywood Bowl’s ability to generate revenue growth and margin improvement in the trading environment, especially given the weather and the World Cup during the year, was “an impressive achievement” and “demonstrates the strength of both the offering and the management team”.

The company hasn’t shied away from sharing the fruits of its success by returning money to shareholders. Since its IPO in September 2016, Hollywood Bowl will have returned a total of £29.8m to shareholders, representing 12.4 per cent of the company’s market capitalisation at IPO. This came most recently in the form of a 4.33 special dividend, up from a 3.33p special payout last year. Shore Capital thinks as much as 80p could be returned over the next five years – the table below does not include special dividends.

HOLLYWOOD BOWL (BOWL)  
ORD PRICE:229pMARKET VALUE:£300m
TOUCH:2227-231p12-MONTH HIGH:241pLOW: 175p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:3.2%FORWARD PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:63p*NET DEBT:3%
Year to 30 SepRevenue (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201610517.89.40.2
201711421.112.25.8
201812123.912.56.3
2019**12725.813.76.8
2020**13427.614.77.4
% change+5+7+7+9
Normal market size:2,000   
Beta:0.82   
*Includes intangible assets of £78.6m, or 52p a share
**Shore Capital forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures