Welcome to the Investors Chronicle’s new Ideas Farm. We offer up a lot of investment ideas for our readers. Over the past 12 months, to improve the idea generation process, we’ve increased our focus on market signals that highlight stocks that may be worth further research. These new tables have been put together to share this weekly ideas generation, as we think readers will be able to gain their own valuable insights from the data. This data should also provide context to some of the companies featured in the Tips section.
Click here to view the Ideas Farm tables in PDF form.
The data is best regarded as imperfect but useful. For example, movements in brokers’ earnings expectations can be a valuable indicator of an ongoing improvement or deterioration in prospects. However, to make the data of any real value, it is important to find out why the forecast change has occurred and then decide what the event really means for the longer-term prospects.
1-month EPS upgrades (top 25)
| Sunday, 3 May 2020 | FWD EPS CHG | |||
| Name | TIDM | 1mth | 3mth | 1yr |
| Shanta Gold | AIM:SHG | 170.3% | 46.0% | 104% |
| Plus500 | LSE:PLUS | 64.4% | 85.4% | 64% |
| M.P. Evans | AIM:MPE | 58.1% | 28.6% | 14% |
| Bango | AIM:BGO | 54.5% | -33.3% | -73% |
| Gear4music | AIM:G4M | 52.1% | 52.1% | -6% |
| Central Asia Metals | AIM:CAML | 45.6% | -32.9% | -45% |
| Trackwise Designs | AIM:TWD | 44.2% | 19.0% | -31% |
| System1 | AIM:SYS1 | 36.8% | -38.1% | -38% |
| Concurrent Technologies | AIM:CNC | 31.8% | 31.8% | -9% |
| Symphony Environmental Technologies | AIM:SYM | 25.0% | 25.0% | - |
| Venture Life | AIM:VLG | 22.5% | 27.0% | 36% |
| IG Group | LSE:IGG | 20.5% | 28.1% | - |
| NWF | AIM:NWF | 19.8% | 19.8% | 24% |
| Kenmare Resources p | LSE:KMR | 19.2% | -33.9% | -49% |
| Dart | AIM:DTG | 18.6% | 21.2% | 54% |
| Renold | AIM:RNO | 16.4% | -5.4% | -30% |
| Ergomed | AIM:ERGO | 16.2% | 16.2% | 79% |
| Centamin | LSE:CEY | 14.7% | 39.2% | - |
| CMC Markets | LSE:CMCX | 13.0% | 75.0% | - |
| CentralNic | AIM:CNIC | 10.1% | 9.9% | 75% |
| Petropavlovsk | LSE:POG | 9.5% | 32.2% | - |
| Palace Capital | LSE:PCA | 9.5% | - | 9% |
| Frasers | LSE:FRAS | 9.3% | -61.7% | -45% |
| GVC | LSE:GVC | 8.9% | -48.3% | -43% |
| Impact Healthcare REIT | LSE:IHR | 8.6% | 15.4% | - |
Source: S&P CapitalIQ
1-month EPS downgrades (top 25)
| Sunday, 3 May 2020 | FWD EPS CHG | |||
| Name | TIDM | 1mth | 3mth | 1yr |
| The Restaurant Group | LSE:RTN | -92.5% | -96.5% | -97% |
| DFS Furniture | LSE:DFS | -88.9% | -92.3% | - |
| Beazley | LSE:BEZ | -88.7% | -91.7% | -93% |
| Wizz Air | LSE:WIZZ | -83.0% | -86.8% | - |
| On the Beach | LSE:OTB | -77.0% | -92.0% | -93% |
| Alfa Financial Software | LSE:ALFA | -74.3% | -74.8% | -91% |
| Dialight | LSE:DIA | -74.3% | -78.9% | -87% |
| TUI AG | LSE:TUI | -72.9% | - | - |
| Ascential | LSE:ASCL | -72.7% | -78.0% | -79% |
| Robert Walters | LSE:RWA | -72.7% | -84.2% | -86% |
| CPPGroup | AIM:CPP | -70.9% | -70.9% | -95% |
| Luceco | LSE:LUCE | -68.3% | -68.3% | -59% |
| Rolls-Royce | LSE:RR. | -65.2% | -78.2% | -83% |
| TBC Bank | LSE:TBCG | -64.5% | -60.2% | -62% |
| Atalaya Mining | AIM:ATYM | -62.7% | -74.3% | -77% |
| DP Eurasia N.V. | LSE:DPEU | -60.0% | -61.0% | -74% |
| Hiscox | LSE:HSX | -58.7% | -68.6% | -79% |
| Arrow Global | LSE:ARW | -57.3% | -65.0% | -71% |
| Signature Aviation | LSE:SIG | -55.2% | -59.6% | -73% |
| J D Wetherspoon | LSE:JDW | -54.6% | - | - |
| NEXT | LSE:NXT | -52.8% | -66.0% | -65% |
| Greggs | LSE:GRG | -52.4% | -51.8% | -46% |
| SigmaRoc | AIM:SRC | -51.0% | -51.0% | -51% |
| Nucleus Financial | AIM:NUC | -50.0% | -51.1% | -54% |
| G4S | LSE:GFS | -48.2% | -48.6% | -50% |
Source: S&P CapitalIQ
As well as forecast changes, these tables will highlight stocks close to 52-week highs and lows. While generally it is a good sign if stocks are near a high and a bad sign if they are near a low, sometimes these will also be contrarian indicators of value opportunities or overvaluation.
New 52-week highs
| Name | TIDM | Price | % from hi |
| Cardiff Property | LSE:CDFF | 1,775p | 0.0% |
| BH Macro | LSE:BHMG | 3,350p | 0.6% |
| Bioventix | AIM:BVXP | 4,330p | 0.7% |
| Hilton Food | LSE:HFG | 1,214p | 0.8% |
| Daejan c | LSE:DJAN | 8,030p | 0.9% |
| Frontier Developments | AIM:FDEV | 1,721p | 1.0% |
| Ruffer Investment Company | LSE:RICA | 239p | 1.2% |
| IndigoVision | AIM:IND | 385p | 1.3% |
| Jarvis Securities | AIM:JIM | 520p | 1.9% |
| Caledonia Mining Corporation | AIM:CMCL | 975p | 2.1% |
| BH Global | LSE:BHGG | 1,760p | 2.2% |
| Personal Assets Trust | LSE:PNL | 43,000p | 2.4% |
| Reckitt Benckiser | LSE:RB. | 6,570p | 2.6% |
| Uniphar | AIM:UPR | 144p | 2.7% |
| Flutter Entertainment | LSE:FLTR | 9,980p | 2.8% |
| IQGeo | AIM:IQG | 65p | 3.0% |
Source: S&P CapitalIQ
New 52-week lows
| Name | TIDM | Price | % from lo |
| Electra Private Equity | LSE:ELTA | 135p | 0.7% |
| Mothercare | LSE:MTC | 4p | 1.3% |
| J. Smart & Co. (Contractors) | LSE:SMJ | 110p | 1.8% |
| Worsley Investors | LSE:WINV | 26p | 1.9% |
| Better Capital PCC | LSE:BCAP | 26p | 2.0% |
| Ranger Direct Lending Fund | LSE:RDL | 50p | 2.0% |
| Rose Petroleum | AIM:ROSE | 0p | 2.1% |
| LPA Group | AIM:LPA | 65p | 2.3% |
| Duke Royalty | AIM:DUKE | 21p | 2.9% |
| Highcroft Investments | LSE:HCFT | 670p | 3.0% |
Source: S&P CapitalIQ
We’re also producing a list of the market’s most shorted shares based on disclosures to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Short sellers have proved very good at highlighting troubled companies, such as Carillion, Debenhams and Thomas Cook. However, sometimes short sellers get it badly wrong, which can lead to massive ‘short squeezes’ as shares are bought to cover short positions and extinguish losing bets. Electric car maker Tesla was a prime example of this phenomenon in action, with the shares registering a near-fivefold rise from their 2019 lows to recent high.
Shorts (top 40)
| Company | Short Interest | No. Shorters | 1wk chg |
| PREMIER OIL | 19.7% | 3 | 0.0% |
| PADDY POWER BETFAIR | 12.2% | 12 | -1.1% |
| HAMMERSON | 9.0% | 7 | 1.5% |
| TULLOW OIL | 8.9% | 7 | -0.2% |
| EASYJET | 8.8% | 6 | 0.4% |
| METRO BANK | 8.0% | 5 | 0.7% |
| ROYAL MAIL | 7.9% | 7 | -0.1% |
| PEARSON P | 6.5% | 6 | 0.3% |
| SAINSBURY (J) P | 6.5% | 5 | 0.1% |
| KEYWORDS STUDIOS | 6.4% | 8 | 0.5% |
| WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS | 6.3% | 4 | 0.4% |
| BABCOCK INTL | 5.9% | 7 | -0.2% |
| ASCENTIAL | 5.8% | 5 | 0.0% |
| PETROFAC | 5.8% | 5 | 0.1% |
| PETS AT HOME | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% |
| GW PHARMACEUTICALS | 5.2% | 4 | 0.0% |
| DIGNITY | 5.1% | 3 | -0.6% |
| WOOD GROUP (JOHN) | 5.1% | 7 | 0.3% |
| CAPITA | 5.0% | 4 | 0.9% |
| PETROPAVLOVSK | 5.0% | 1 | 0.0% |
| TUI AG | 4.9% | 6 | 0.0% |
| WEIR | 4.8% | 5 | 0.0% |
| IQE | 4.7% | 3 | 0.2% |
| AA | 4.4% | 3 | 0.0% |
| HALFORDS | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% |
| MICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL | 4.2% | 5 | -0.5% |
| MARKS & SPENCER | 3.9% | 3 | 0.0% |
| FUTURE | 3.8% | 3 | 0.0% |
| VODAFONE | 3.8% | 4 | 0.0% |
| INTU PROPERTIES | 3.6% | 1 | 0.0% |
| BLUE PRISM | 3.5% | 3 | -0.5% |
| A.G. BARR | 3.4% | 3 | 0.0% |
| EQUINITI | 3.4% | 4 | -0.1% |
| AGGREKO | 3.3% | 3 | 0.2% |
| DAILY MAIL&GENERAL TST-A NV | 3.3% | 3 | 0.0% |
| CINEWORLD | 3.2% | 5 | NEW |
| CRODA INTERNATIONAL | 3.2% | 4 | NEW |
| CYBG | 3.2% | 3 | NEW |
| INCHCAPE | 3.2% | 2 | 0.0% |
| DUNELM GROUP | 3.1% | 4 | 0.2% |
Source: FCA
The best ideas of top fund managers are another area of focus. Last week, our ‘Follow the leader’ feature offered a thorough explanation of the evidence that these holdings are worthy of investigation.
Meanwhile, that old favourite indicator of insider sentiment, director deals, are being drawn on as inspiration, although this data will continue to appear elsewhere on the website and in the magazine.
Our tips and ideas will also continue to draw on the screen results published weekly in our Alpha reports. We hope that by doing this we’re adding value for Alpha subscribers with our analysis, while also using the Alpha data to add value for readers that get the magazine but don’t subscribe to the service.
Finally, each week we’ll be publishing a guide to the investment styles that have been most successful over the past three months, in chart form. This guide is based on monitoring a range of basic indicators of Value, Growth, Quality and Momentum and there is a fuller explanation of what is being measured in this week’s stock screening column. We think this is of interest because different investment styles often go through long periods of out- or underperformance.
